749
FXUS63 KEAX 200536
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TOMORROW WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH MINIMAL STILL, COMES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH
CLOSED LOW FORECASTED ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY BRUSH ACROSS ACROSS KS AND
MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BRING INCREASED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AS MUCH OF THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER. SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BRIEF REFLECTIVITIES BUT NOTHING
WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS. AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR
DISCUSSION, THE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY AT BEST PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA (5-10% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION) AND I
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWER. ALL THE
SHORTER RANGE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY PROBABILITY EXCEEDING
0.01 INCHES PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST
OF SEDALIA. THE LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES ONLY SHOW HINT OF 5-10%
EXCEEDING 0.01 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF SEDALIA AND OUR OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY
CONCERN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WE
GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY RAMP UP
AGAIN. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WITHIN ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECTING WEST-NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FOR THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE PROBABILITIES ARE >80% FOR
EXCEEDING 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS.
OTHERWISE RATHER COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE TIME PERIOD IS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THERE IS A BRIEF WARMING ON SUNDAY.
THE NBM PROBABILISTIC MODEL SHOWS 20-60% HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 60F DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH
OF THE GREATER KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. HOWEVER, THAT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. EVEN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, EXPECT LESS THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITATION VALUES AS THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW AT BEST
10-20% PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 0.01 INCHES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE GUSTS WILL
DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE DECOUPLES FROM THE SPEED NORTHWEST
WIND ALOFT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MK
AVIATION...BT
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