518
FXUS63 KEAX 201740
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1140 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR NW MO AND EXTREME NE KS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS OF
40-45 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 30%
THIS AFTERNOON.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH, MOVING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER-LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ UPPER MIDWEST, IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE MIXING DEPTH INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
MIX DOWNWARD LEADING TO GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVERLY
STRONG, SO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. BUT WITH 40-
45 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER, AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW, WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MO. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE NOT AS
PROBABLE AS THE OTHER DAY AND EVEN LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL IN THE 20-
30 PERCENT RANGE. REGARDLESS, IT'S GOING TO BE WINDY SO HAVE ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS THAT SEEM MOST LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET BEYOND TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS AIDING THE WARMUP. FOR
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY BE
PUSHING 15+ DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AND KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS SHOW EITHER WEAK/ BROAD RIDGING OR WEAK/ BROAD TROUGHING
WITHIN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. NOT SURPRISINGLY,
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN 0.01" ARE SMALL AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 25% TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
TO NORTH AROUND SUNRISE WITH GUSTS 20-24KTS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL, ONE-HOUR FUELS LIKE CURED GRASSES WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH. STRONG
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MO, WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP TO AS LOW AS 30%.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ001>007-
011>016-020.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MAK
FIRE WEATHER...CDB
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