378
FXUS63 KEAX 151125
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
525 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STATUS CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS, GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- COOLER (AND MORE SEASONAL) TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- OTHER THAN A COUPLE CHANCES FOR MARGINAL RAIN AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE OZARKS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS THE
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH
THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MO/IL/IA TRI STATE BORDER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN
INVERSION AROUND 850 MB AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THIS HAS
YIELDED A WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FOG MIXING OUT AND STATUS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND INCREASED THETA E
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN OPEN WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHERE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND KEEP TEMPS COOLER.
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED
TO EXTEND NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS, MEANWHILE, THE
CLOSED SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE NEAR GRAND FORKS, ND WITH AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT ENTERING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT TOWARD THE
OZARKS, BUT ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST (ACROSS SPRINGFIELD AND ST LOUIS' CWAS).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT,
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
(UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS). A STRONG JET
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP PRODUCE BREEZY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH AROUND MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING, ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO EAST MID LEVEL
FLOW TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD SEND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TOWARD THE OZARKS
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING, WITH ONLY VERY MINOR QPF
ANTICIPATED (LESS THAN 0.1").
MUCH MORE SEASONAL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND (THURSDAY BEING ONE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES FOR MAXT AT MCI ARE 38 AND 50 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY). DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORED TO PERSIST FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
LIFR/IFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES WILL PERSIST THRU 16Z WITH FOG
IMPACTING MCI AND STJ REDUCING VIS TO 1/2SM-2SM. VIS WILL
IMPROVE AFT 16Z HOWEVER IFR CIGS WILL CONT THRU 19Z AT MCI AND
STJ BEFORE BECMG VFR. AFT 19Z EXPECT SCT-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THRU
THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB THRU 16Z
BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SSE AROUND 10KTS. AFT 04Z WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SW AND WKN TO 5-10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...73
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