115
FXUS63 KEAX 152349
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
549 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT)
OF LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. A SECOND SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THIS AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK BEFORE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENVELOPS THE CENTRAL U.S.
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY WAS DETERMINING THE INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
AFTER THIS MORNING'S SOUPY EPISODE, BRIGHTER SKIES AND HIGHER
VISIBILITIES HAVE TAKEN OVER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (12-17 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES), THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE UPSTREAM
TRAJECTORIES (I.E., FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN) OF THE SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SEASONABLY BALMY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, DESPITE ANOTHER (WEAK)
SYSTEM PASSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS PERTURBATION IS MUCH
LOWER IN AMPLITUDE, WITH ITS ORIGINS SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR.
A KEY DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IS ITS CONSIDERABLY
REDUCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND ITS QUICK PROGRESSION (WHICH WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH MOISTURE RECOVERY). MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WITH THE SYSTEM IN OUR AREA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TODAY'S
QPF LARGELY CONFINED TO THE OZARKS AND OUR CENTRAL MISSOURI
COUNTIES (AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST). THE RAIN
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF HERE BY LATE TONIGHT, AND THE UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY, MAYBE
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF TONIGHT'S, SET TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS PERTURBATION
IS MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST (WITH A COLDER ORIGIN), SO THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS ONE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE. AFTER
ANOTHER MILD DAY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AROUND 15
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY (BRINGING US BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES). AS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION, THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS
VORT MAX AND ITS SHORT DISTANCE FROM TONIGHT'S SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOISTURE RETURN BRIEF/MEAGER. THUS, WHAT LITTLE RAIN OUR
FORECAST AREA SEES APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AGAIN (WITH TIMING MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT).
THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN
DECENT COLD ADVECTION ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. UPSTREAM RIDGING IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., LEADING TO A
COOL/DRY PERIOD. THE BROADER RIDGING WILL KEEP SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWEST-FLOW (CLIPPER) SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, SO THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEK. FOLLOWING A FREQUENCY OF ABOUT ONE VORT MAX PER DAY
FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST REACHES THE GREAT PLAINS
BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY STRETCH
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, ALL SIGNS POINT TO A WARMING
TREND TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH MAY DEVELOP SOME BR CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT; HOWEVER,
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF BR REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW
WITH GUSTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...PESEL
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