151
FXUS63 KEAX 160825
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
225 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED.
- ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) OF RAIN EXISTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE LONE
LOW-END CHANCE (15-25%) FOR PRECIPITATION COMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE ROLLERCOASTER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING IT WAY THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. A TRANSIENT AREA OF FOG IS EXPECTED AT
THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS TO THE SOUTH.
ONLY MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY SO TEMPERATURES ALBEIT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. DESPITE A COOL START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND MODEST WAA WILL GET
UNDERWAY IN ITS WAKE AIDING IN HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
FORCING A COLDER COLD FRONT THOUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA HOWEVER, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS RELATIVELY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL RETURN HIGHS TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY STRONG WAA IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BRIEFLY BACK ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND IT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. SATURDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL RELAX HOWEVER, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WEAK MIXING
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40. SUNDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE EITHER ZONAL OR WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON SURFACE FEATURES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE EC HOLDING ONTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES STRONG WAA IN RESPONSE TO THE
EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED WARMING IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY HOWEVER, HOW MUCH IS QUESTION. WITH A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BEING FAVORED, GENERALLY FEEL THE WARMER GFS IS MORE LIKELY
TO VERIFY AND THUSLY THE NBM WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S IS TOO COOL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, SURROUNDING OBS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VIS DURING LULLS IN THE
WIND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE
SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS DISSIPATE AT SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PESEL
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