205
FXUS63 KEAX 162111
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING.
* MILD CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST LEADING
TO A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW
FEATURES A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH WITH
SECONDARY IMPACTS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, 925 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 2-4 C WILL KEEP LOWS
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KS ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVER, MAINLY UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS, WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LYING
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL ADVECT NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NAM SUGGESTS STRATUS MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY THICK
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO LEAD TO DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE A BIT SHALLOWER, THOUGH SUGGESTS STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SHALLOW SHOWERS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WAVE MOVING FROM ALBERTA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH, COLD FRONT LATER ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS, GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELAX
THROUGH THE EVENING BECOMING MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...KURTZ
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