646
FXUS63 KEAX 171024
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
424 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY.
- COOLER TOMORROW, BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KC METRO TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS ENHANCED
ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AT THE MID LEVELS, WITH
ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THANKS TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES (CENTER OF THE HIGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
STL) WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND
LIGHT WINDS, WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND COALESCES WITH LONGER WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY AND USHER IN SOME MODEST THETA E ADVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AS
CHILLY AS THE MID 40S OVER NORTHERN MO TO AS WARM AS THE MID 50S
TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU, WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS
FINAL APPROACH WITH DEW POINTS RISING SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE OZARKS, CENTRAL MO, AND NORTHEASTERN MO, ALTHOUGH QPF
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.1".
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S, WITH CLOUDS LIKELY FINALLY CLEARING OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE ARE POSITIONED TO GET A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH (CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM)
RAPIDLY DESCENDS OUT OF ALBERTA/MANITOBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS, ALLOWING FOR MODERATE THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY, INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO ENTER INTO FAR NW MISSOURI BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH THE FRONT COMPLETELY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES PAIRED WITH
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD YIELD MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AS WE HEAD
INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW
PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT IN DIRECTION.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...KRULL
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