876
FXUS63 KEAX 172334
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EXPECTED TONIGHT EAST OF I-35.
* COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 19Z IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, LOW LYING STRATUS WILL ADVECT NORTH POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS SUFFICIENT LIFT THROUGH THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAD TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
(GENERALLY 0.05" OR LESS). DESI SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL, WITH THE
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD AS HIGH AS 70%. AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUR
BRINGING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMING CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY; HOWEVER, THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WARMING CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK AS
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAW MILD AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE 0C ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
MIDWEEK. RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S MAY BE A BIT OUT REACH, BUT
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOOK LIKELY (50-60%).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. STRATUS CLOUDS AS LOW AS 2,500 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR PREVAILING AT THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT, AS LOWER CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS FILTER INTO MISSOURI. CEILINGS COULD REMAIN AT MVFR
THRESHOLDS UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT, WITHIN A 5-10 KNOT RANGE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...HAYES
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