811
FXUS63 KEAX 180517
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1117 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EXPECTED TONIGHT EAST OF I-35.
* COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 19Z IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, LOW LYING STRATUS WILL ADVECT NORTH POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS SUFFICIENT LIFT THROUGH THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAD TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
(GENERALLY 0.05" OR LESS). DESI SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL, WITH THE
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD AS HIGH AS 70%. AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUR
BRINGING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMING CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY; HOWEVER, THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WARMING CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK AS
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAW MILD AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE 0C ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
MIDWEEK. RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S MAY BE A BIT OUT REACH, BUT
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOOK LIKELY (50-60%).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OBSERVATION
TRENDS SHOW RAISING CEILINGS SO FAR TONIGHT. CONVERSELY, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD BASES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH CLOUD BASES OF 1,500 FEET OR LESS POSSIBLE.
WHETHER THESE LOW CEILINGS MATERIALIZE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL START TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT AROUND 5-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...HAYES
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