679
FXUS63 KEAX 181723
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1123 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN TOMORROW.
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BRINGING IN
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS THE MID
UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW HAS
MADE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE WERE AREAS OF
SOME WEAK ECHOES FROM KEAX RADAR ACROSS THE REGION, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT NO PRECIPITATION REACHED THE SURFACE THANKS TO
DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION HAS
ALREADY SEEN THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY, AS COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
WE ARE POSITIONED TO GET A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH (CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM)
RAPIDLY DESCENDS OUT OF ALBERTA/MANITOBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHERN IOWA, ALLOWING FOR MODERATE THETA E ADVECTION
ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY,
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO ENTER INTO FAR
NW MISSOURI BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH THE FRONT COMPLETELY MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH (ESPECIALLY OVER NW MISSOURI),
WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOLING. COLD TEMPERATURES PAIRED
WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD YIELD MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AS WE HEAD
INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS,
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SUNDAY. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 50S BY CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE OZARKS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME
(25 PERCENT POPS OR LESS FOR OUR CWA).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO ARE NEAR 1000 FT AGL,
GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE AREA OF
CLOUDS TRENDS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. SO HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS,
GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. HREF KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 10% OR LESS FOR VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 1 MILE. SO WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WINDS INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20KTS BY 18Z THURSDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...CDB
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