911
FXUS63 KEAX 190520
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1120 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND BREEZY THURSDAY.
- MUCH COLDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY (55-80%).
- TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PROBABILITIES (<25%) FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY WE'LL
SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO. AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA, WINDS MAY
GUST INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.
IN THE WAKE OF THAT FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY WITH 25-30 MPH WINDS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY MORNING
WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS, WND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT BY
EARLY NEXT WORK, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY THE 25TH. SMALL
CHANCES FOR POPS ARE SHOWING UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS SHOW A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK. BUT
APPROXIMATELY 50% OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LEADS TO THE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WHICH ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR
EASTERN/ SOUTHERN ZONES. POPS WITHIN THIS REGIME ARE LOW, GENERALLY
LESS THAN 25%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR PREVAILS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PROJECT LOW CLOUD BASES DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT, THOUGH WHETHER THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT IN A
WESTERLY MANNER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO OVER 15 KNOTS. WINDS GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS COULD OCCUR
DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...HAYES
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