503
FXUS63 KEAX 191732
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY TODAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
- SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION ARE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER FAR SW MINNESOTA BY
NOON TODAY. THIS WILL YIELD THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NE MISSOURI TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
TURN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NE IOWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT ENTERING
INTO FAR NW MISSOURI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
KC METRO BY AROUND 8 PM, AND COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA BY AROUND 10 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS
FAR NW MISSOURI IN THE 3 PM TO 8 PM WINDOW, WHERE GUSTS COULD
GET AS STRONG AS 40 MPH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND THIS PAIRED
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS TO LOWER 20S) WILL YIELD WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RELAXING WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY HAVE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, FORECAST HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN MO TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION THAT MAY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE TOWARD CENTRAL
MISSOURI/THE OZARKS. ACCORDINGLY, WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR
MONDAY ALL THE WAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY COME
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME
QPF REMAINS BELOW 0.25" FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THESE TWO
POTENTIAL RAIN PERIODS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THE TAFS BUT IT'S POSSIBLE
GUSTS COULD BE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. WIND DIRECTION DURING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF THE
WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...CDB
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