108
FXUS63 KEAX 192343
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF 40-45 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING.
- MUCH COLDER FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST OF I-35 TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ELSEWHERE.
- TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS OCCURRING IN SEVERAL CHUNKS OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY. THE INITIAL PV IS MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY.
BUT A STRONGER AREA OF PV IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA, WITH
TRAILING PV INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TYPICALLY, WHEN A STRONG PV
ANOMALY MOVES OVERHEAD, WE TEND TO HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING INTO NORTHERN IA WITH THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO INTO IL TONIGHT, THE TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ITS WESTERN FLANKS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MO. AND WITH THE PV MOVING OVERHEAD, WE'LL SEE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ MIXING THROUGH NEARLY THE FIRST KM OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WINDS IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE. ALL
THIS POINTS TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL
BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE. IT'S POSSIBLE, THOUGH BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
UNLIKELY, SOME LOCATIONS SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.
WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S BY TOMORROW MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS, AND WE'LL SEE VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST OF I-35 TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND SATURDAY, THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. BY SUNDAY, BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THAT WILL HELP HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP
FOR NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST POTENTIAL ARRIVES MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH
A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY
BUT AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES, SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM
AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, IT
LOOKS WARM ENOUGH THAT THIS WOULD BE A RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA.
AND GIVEN IT'S STILL DAY SEVEN AND DAY EIGHT, GUIDANCE IS QUITE
VARIABLE ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD, THERE ARE
PROBABILITIES 20-30% OF WIND GUSTS REACHING ABOVE 40KTS BUT
WILL BE VERY BRIEF BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN AT TAF SITES FROM 30-35KTS AND AS WE HAVE SEEN
AT KSTJ THE WIND GUSTS COULD BE 35-40KT RANGE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BACK TO
SUSTAINED 12-15KTS AFTER 15Z. WIND DIRECTION DURING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MAK
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