047
FXUS63 KEAX 201722
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BRISK MORNING EXPECTED WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. WINDS
GRADUALLY SLOW THROUGH THE DAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SIT AROUND FREEZING TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TOMORROW, THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
- CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK REMAINS WARM AND WET.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A COLD FRONT PACKED QUITE A PUNCH AS IT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-45 MPH WERE OBSERVED AS
TEMPERATURES CASCADED DOWNWARDS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WINDS AND THE
COLD LOOK TO STICK AROUND MAKING FOR A BRISK FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
HAVE SETTLED A LITTLE BIT WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH;
HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WHILE GUSTS REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS THE LOW WHICH BROUGHT THE WINDS AND COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO SLIDE TOWARD THE SE. COLD TEMPERATURES DO NOT MOVE OUT WITH THE
WINDS AS HIGHS TODAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING WITH MOST AREAS
NORTH OF US-50 STAYING AT OR BELOW 32F. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OF
COLD AIR PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS
TO KEEP COLD AIR AROUND; HOWEVER, RIDGING AT LOWER LEVELS DOES
ENABLE SOME LOW LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION ELEVATING SATURDAY'S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 30S.
A SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING ALOFT PROMOTE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY. A LEEWARD LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ACCELERATES THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID-40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE LOW
50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRETTY MUCH SQUASHING ANY
CHANCE OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS.
WHILE IT IS NOT LOOKING LIKE A WHITE CHRISTMAS, THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR IT TO BE A WET CHRISTMAS. UPPER LEVEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SUNDAY'S UPPER MIDWEST WAVE SLOWING AS IT REACHES NORTHERN WI THANKS
TO A STOUT SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST. THIS COMPRESSES THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD. SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES DEVELOP LEEWARD SURFACE CYCLONES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD TAP INTO THE WARMER SATURATED
AIR AND PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS STARTING
LATE DEC 23RD CONTINUING THROUGH DEC 25TH. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE 29TH. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE
HIGH AS MODEL RUNS HAVE FLUCTUATED HEAVILY ON WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVELY
SUGGESTING MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 DEC 23RD AND 24TH;
HOWEVER, THE LATER PERIOD IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH OVERALL
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ACCUMULATION AT 30% OR LESS. IT IS LIKELY THAT
THIS IS DUE LONG RANGE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND THE RELIANCE ON
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WHICH CREATES MANY FLUCTUATIONS FROM MODEL RUN TO
RUN. CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND SUBSEQUENT
UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IS THAT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, THIS WILL KEEP ALL EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION LIQUID THROUGHOUT LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL KEEP SKIES VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW MORE HOURS OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN WINDS SHIFT BUT BECOME CALMER.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...KRULL
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