972
FXUS63 KEAX 201957
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
157 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND, EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDLE OF WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER BRISK, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
STRONGER AVA HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET
STREAM WHICH HAS GRADUALLY CLEARED SKIES OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND BY EVENING SHOULD LEAVE MOST OF
OUR AREA IN THE CLEAR. THE SUBSIDENCE HAS ALSO BEEN BUILDING A
STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD. STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT BY
MID-EVENING SHOULD WEAKEN, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE WINDS HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONGER THIS
EVENING, BUT THE AIRMASS IN PLACE IS RELATIVELY DRY. SOME AREAS MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP BUT FOR RIGHT NOW, NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RH TRENDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE AXIS RIDES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND PROVIDES MODEST HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, THIS MOVES RATHER QUICKLY AND IS PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. WITH DRY AIR ALSO IN PLACE, NOT EXPECTING THIS
TO PRODUCE ANY KIND OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENT CAMS REMAIN DRY,
THEREFORE HREF QPF FIELDS ARE DRY SATURDAY. COARSER SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENSEMBLE SUITES ALSO HAVE PROBABILITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT FOR ANY KIND
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. ONCE THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE PASSES BY,
925-850MB FLOW BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL PROVIDE A WEAK
WAA REGIME, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO HAVE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 30S.
SUNDAY, A PV ANOMALY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SEND
MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION THAT AMPLIFIES
A RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AND TURN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY PROVIDING MORE WAA. THIS WILL BE THE
SOURCE OF THE WARM UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST
ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE SHOWING UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR INNER-
QUARTILE TEMPERATURES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MOST DAYS, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. EXPECTING NO FORCING THROUGH
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, A FEW SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW THAT COULD PRESENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, AND ARE CONCENTRATED MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. AS ONE OF THE WAVES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD,
THOSE LOWER END PROBABILITIES LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS
TIME, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 0.10 INCHES IS ONLY AROUND 20-
25 PERCENT FOR MOST OF OUR COUNTIES. THE GREATER MOISTURE AXIS WILL
BE SOUTHWARD OF THE AREA OVER THE OZARKS REGION. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN BLENDED GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS IN
THE 7 DAY FORECAST, AS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE THERE IS A LOT
DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS OF THE SHORT-WAVES THAT RIDE THROUGH THE
FLOW. BUT AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS IN THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL KEEP SKIES VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW MORE HOURS OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN WINDS SHIFT BUT BECOME CALMER.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
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