227
FXUS63 KEAX 150940
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMUP BEGINS TODAY, MORE SO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING 40S
* STRONG BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOOKING LIKE SOME OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
- LOWS BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS TO -15 DEG F OR COLDER POSSIBLE
* LOW (<30%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN) OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
OVERALL VERY QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, LET ALONE THE WIDER REGION. AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE MISSOURI, WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT E/SE THIS MORNING. TYPICALLY, SUCH
PLACEMENT WOULD YIELD STRONG DIURNAL COOLING WITH THE EXISTING
SNOWPACK, HOWEVER A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL (~800-700MB) CLOUD DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE PUT A HALT TO IT
ACROSS THE CWA. MANY SITES INITIALLY RAPIDLY COOLED YESTERDAY
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, BUT HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF SAID CLOUD DECK. WILL
PUT AN OVERALL DAMPER ON ORIGINALLY FORECAST LOWS BY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES, BUT DOUBT MANY WILL COMPLAIN. IN FACT, THAT CLOUD DECK, AND
DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH, ALSO HINTS AT THE BEGINNING OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH WELCOME WAA.
TODAY, ADDITIONAL WARMTH WILL BE MODEST WITH INITIAL CLOUD
COVER AND ONLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY REGION PUSH ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, PREDOMINANTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK
AND THE LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT, SAID FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS MISSOURI, BUT AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH MORE MUTED IN
TEMPERATURE THANKS TO ITS MORE PACIFIC ORIGIN (VS ARCTIC). IN FACT,
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS AS A STRONG WAA/THETA-E PUSH
AND SEE LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR ONLY FALLING A FEW DEGREES OVER
DAYTIME HIGHS. EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY OVER SNOW AREAS, TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A NICE BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. AREAS WITH LESSER TO NO SNOWPACK MAY SEE LOW TO MID
40S, WHILE FURTHER NORTH AND OVER SNOWPACK MID TO UPPER 30S ARE MOST
LIKELY. FRIDAY WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST TO TEMPERATURES WITH A
CONCEPTUALLY MORE TRADITIONAL WAA REGIME. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES
ON A MORE ZONAL TO WEAK RIDGING LOOK THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SE US SURFACE HIGH AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE US-
CANADIAN BORDER. ALL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LOCK STEP FOR AN ADDITIONAL
BOOST TO TEMPERATURES OVER THURSDAY, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO
MID 50S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT PEAK POTENTIAL, BUT THE MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW MOST (IF NOT ALL) TO HIT AT LEAST 40. ENJOY IT THOUGH,
AS IT COMES CRASHING DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND...
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE ONLY NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST WILL CLIP THE CWA. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE DEPICTION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES AND TIMING OF THEIR FEATURES. EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO MISSOURI BY FRIDAY EVENING, USHERING IN
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS. JUST PRIOR TO THAT, SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASING FORCING AND USHER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
RETURN UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCATION AND TIMING REMAINS EERILY
CONSISTENT IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, RESULTING NEAR
ZERO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER KC METRO/NW MISSOURI AND UP TO
20-30% CHANCES SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA, FURTHER
INCREASING SOUTH AND EAST. REGARDLESS OF THE OPPORTUNITY, ALL
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS RAIN, LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.
AT THIS POINT, ZERO DOUBT WHATSOEVER IN THE WEEKEND RETURN OF ARCTIC
AIR MASS. BROAD AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, PLACING THE REGION ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE NW FLOW REGIME. EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR HIGHS PLUMMETING INTO
THE TEENS OR COLDER ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY/MONDAY (>90%). A FAIR
NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (~40-50%) CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS WELL.
LOWS AROUND TO BELOW ZERO ALSO REMAIN FAVORED, ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. AT
THAT POINT, EVEN LIGHT/MODEST WINDS MAY PUSH MORNING WIND CHILLS
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO DEG F OR COLDER. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
COULD BE NECESSARY AS A RESULT. THIS COLD APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BKN-
OVC DECK AROUND 9-12KFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHILE REMAINING LIGHT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...COLLIER
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