656
FXUS63 KEAX 152323
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS, LEADING TO SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15 DEGREES OR
BELOW) ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT (>80 PERCENT
CHANCE).
- ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN ON FRIDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL MISSOURI, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN IN CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND A BRUTAL STRETCH
OF COLD WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH TODAY, AIDED BY A NORTHERN-STREAM KICKER
SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY. UPSTREAM (TRANSIENT)
RIDGING IS SOON TO FOLLOW, LEADING TO A BRIEF BUT STOUT WARM-UP
FOR THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT (WITH LOWS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND QUITE NOTICEABLE BY TOMORROW, AS
TEMPERATURES READILY EXCEED FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE SNOWPACK WILL MUTE THE WARMING, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY, SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT FROM CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE POSITIONING
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN-STREAM VORT MAX WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND THE FAR SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BY 00Z SATURDAY,
LIFTING RAPIDLY EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY DURING THIS PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK
OUT IN THE OZARKS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FAST-PACED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE
TIMING OF THE STRENGTHENING LIFT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT FOR OUR FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT (UP TO A 25 PERCENT CHANCE).
MEANWHILE, A NORTHERN-STREAM VORT MAX WILL SWIFTLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE VERY
COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE
COUNTRY. IN OUR AREA, CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 20S AND ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE TEENS. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.
FORTUNATELY, THE WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
BREEZIEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY (WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH), BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SO COLD THAT APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE APPROACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15 DEG F
OR LOWER) SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT
DURING THESE TIMES, WHICH ARE QUITE HIGH THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
THE LOOMING COLD WEATHER WILL BE LONG-LASTING AND THE WORST OF
THE WINTER SEASON (SO FAR). BE PREPARED NOW FOR THE SHOCK THAT
IS TO COME!
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AS THE PATTERN CHANGES FROM A BROAD-SCALE TROUGH
ACROSS THE U.S. TO MORE OF A WESTERN-RIDGE, EASTERN-TROUGH
SETUP. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SEEMS LIKELY IN SUCH A
REGIME CHANGE, AT LEAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT,
SURFACE WINDS WILL LAG THE VEERING OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
IN THE 1000-2000 FT AGL LEVEL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEER. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE WEST AT OR BELOW 10 KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...CDB
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