772
FXUS63 KEAX 162325
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
525 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* FOR FRIDAY- WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, EVEN SOME LOW
50S FROM EAST CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL MO
* SLIGHT CHANCES (<=30%) FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN) OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
* STRONG BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWS BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS TO -15 DEG F OR
COLDER POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, A MODESTLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A
FLAT RIDGE TO OUR WEST. MAKING THE FLAT RIDGE "FLAT" ARE TWO
FEATURES THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
FIRST IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA, WHICH IS SQUEEZING
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES BETWEEN IT AND A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ITS
WAY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, MAKING FOR A FLAT
RIDGE. MORE LOCALLY, CHANGING TO VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A SNOW
PACK IS STILL NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS STRETCHING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI. WHILE SURFACE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY
PREVAILED FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, THE INSOLATION AND WAA HAS STILL
PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, HELPING MELT THE SNOW PACK, AND WE EXPECT EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN CANADIAN TROUGH IS GOING
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOMORROW, STARTING TO SHEAR APART AND
EJECT THE SMALLER CALIFORNIA COAST CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EVENTUALLY, THAT WILL RESULT IN A DRY
COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SPILLS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SO,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INSOLATION AND WAA SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS
FRIDAY INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE EVEN LOW TO MID 50S, BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THE
SHEARING WEST COAST CUTOFF LOW WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS --AND THE GENERAL
PATTERN-- POINT AT MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTH
AND EAST OF MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY, AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM BUTLER TO CLINTON,
SEDALIA, AND BOONVILLE, AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, ARE THE AREAS
THAT HAVE A CHANCE OF ANY RAIN FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING, THEY WONT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO MAKE
FROZEN PRECIPITATION A PROBLEM. SO, IF YOU DO GET ANY PRECIPITATION
IT WILL BE JUST RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
WILL BE COLD AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SPILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER THUS FAR. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY STILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S, BUT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
PUSHING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE EVEN COLDER, WITH SUNDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND AND A LITTLE BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
READINGS GETTING AS LOW AS -15F FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD
REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START REBOUNDING WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
RETURN OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20 AND TEENS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
TIMEFRAME. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL POSE A THREAT WITH A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. WINDS GUSTS TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ARE FORECASTED FROM ROUGHLY 09Z THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CUTTER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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