056
FXUS63 KEAX 171018
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
418 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AGAIN TODAY, BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A 986 MB CLOSED
LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA, APPROACHING THE ONTARIO
BORDER. THESE FEATURES HAVE HELPED PRODUCE INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION, INCLUDING A 40-50
KNOT 850 MB JET, WHICH HAS USHERED IN INCREASED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOLID LOW LEVEL MIXING. BECAUSE OF THIS,
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE EITHER BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY, OR
EVEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, AS MCI WENT FROM 33 DEGREES AT 1
AM TO 43 DEGREES AS OF 330 AM.
BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY, WITH THE STRONGER NORTHERN TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SENDING A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING,
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AS CHILLY AS THE MID 40S OVER NW
MISSOURI TO AS WARM AS THE MID 50S TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING, BUT
SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE AT MOST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE
MAIN STORY HERE IS THE COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL COME BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE CONUS REMAINS BENEATH RELATIVELY HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOW
TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW, AND WITH NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, THE WIND CHILL SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COLDER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. WE RECEIVE YET ANOTHER INFUSION
OF COLD, ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE TEENS, WHICH WOULD BE GOOD FOR 20 TO EVEN
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
(IN WHICH MOST OF THE CWA COULD GET BELOW ZERO).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY WARM BACK UP TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS
BY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN TONIGHT TOWARD CENTRAL MO, DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME. WIND GUSTS TO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ARE FORECASTED FROM ROUGHLY 09Z TODAY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...COLLIER
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