604
FXUS63 KEAX 180443
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1043 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY DRY BUT
COLD FEW DAYS STARTING TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS CANADA AND THE U.S.A.,
HELPING EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE EAST MOVING CANADIAN TROUGH HAS
ALOUD AN ARCTIC HIGH TO START SPILLING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS JUST
PUSHING INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON HIGHS
MANAGED TO GET TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, PUTTING A DENT IN OUR
SNOW PACK. BUT, ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WHAT SNOW AND
ICE ARE THERE WILL BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A FLEETING CHANCE OF SOME RAIN. LOOKING AT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
SOME RADAR RETURNS ARE NOTED WITH THE LEADING WAA. HOWEVER, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE ONLY RAIN REACHING THE GROUND TO BE DOWN IN
OKLAHOMA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING TONIGHT, WHAT
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALL LIQUID,
AND LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THERE IS SOME MODEL
OUTPUTS THAT SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN MISSOURI, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW, ONLY
KEEPING THE BAREST OF CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD.
LOOKING WAY UP NORTH, THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH BEHIND THE
CANADIAN TROUGH IS 1048MB HIGH AT ITS HEART IN NORTHERN CANADA.
AS THIS HIGH SLIDES SOUTH IT WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS WINTER. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL STILL GET INTO THE 20S, BUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY
ONLY SEE MAX READINGS IN THE TEENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WALLOW IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WE EXPECT THE COLDEST READINGS TO RANGE FROM
ZERO TO AROUND -7F. CURRENTLY THIS RESULTS IN FORECAST WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 FOR SATURDAY MORNING, ZERO AND -15
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING, AND ZERO TO -20 FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL
REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AND WE MIGHT NEED ONE ALONG THE
IOWA BORDER SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNINGS, BUT TUESDAY CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF WIND CHILLS DROPPING
BELOW -15F. OTHERWISE, ONCE THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SWEEPS THROUGH
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHES OF VFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECTING GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30KTS OVERNIGHT,
AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 KTS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CUTTER/PESEL
AVIATION...KRULL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page