344
FXUS63 KEAX 192101
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH SOME INTERMITTENT HIGHER
GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER 20F CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
- WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW ZERO THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE MOST DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY MORNING RANGE BETWEEN 0F TO
-10F SOUTH OF I-70 AND -10F TO -20F NORTH OF I-70.
- TEMPERATURES ASCEND BACK TOWARD CLIMATE NORMALS (~40F)
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
BITTER COLD IS THE THEME OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURE THIS
MORNING WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WINDS CHILLS NEAR OR
BELOW -10F. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO
SURGE INTO THE REGION. WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH MAKE IT FEEL QUITE
BRISK OUT THERE. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE COUNTERACT
MUCH OF THE SOLAR HEATING KEEPING AIR TEMPERATURES FROM CRESTING INTO
THE DOUBLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH POSITIVE VALUES LIKELY STAYING BELOW ZERO FOR MOST PLACES.
850MB FLOW RELAXES A LITTLE BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT RELAXING WINDS AND BRINGING SLIGHT WIND CHILL RELIEF,
ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR OR BELOW 0F.
UNFORTUNATELY, FURTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PULSES OF COLD AIR
PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY FURTHER DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS. HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WHILE WIND
CHILLS REMAIN BETWEEN 0F AND -10F. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AND MOST HAZARDOUS WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW
0F ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0F AND -10F
SOUTH OF I-70 AND -10F TO -20F NORTH OF I-70.
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING WHICH STARTS PUSHING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RETURN TOWARD
CLIMATE NORMALS MAKING 40 DEGREES FEEL QUITE NICE COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PREVIOUS THREE DAYS. A SMALL IMPULSE OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY KNOCKS TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY BEFORE THEY RESUME TOWARD
THE MID 40S NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN SELDOM WITH
VERY SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
SOME FLURRIES MAY TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDES OF OUR REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEXT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST RUNS
FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDES OF THE CWA. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING
POTENTIAL SWATCH PRECIPITATION EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70.
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON IF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL OR POST-
FRONTAL WHICH WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE.
ANY POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SNOW, BUT
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY HAVE SOME SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN AHEAD OF THE SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME CURTAILS THE NEED TO DIVE TOO FAR INTO THE MINUTE DETAILS OF
THURSDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS VARIANCE OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LARGE SCALE
OSCILLATIONS IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE LONG TERM
TEMPERATURE PATTERN BETWEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
GUSTY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS AND GUSTS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THEY WILL NOT FULLY DISSIPATE
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE REORIENTING TOWARD THE NW WITH GUST RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTER SUNRISE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...PESEL
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