877
FXUS63 KEAX 201745
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT REGION WIDE FROM 6 PM TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
WITH A 498 DAM H5 LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF
COAST, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM AS COLD AS 3 BELOW ZERO IN
CHILLICOTHE TO AS WARM AS 5 DEGREES AT DOWNTOWN KC AIRPORT. THE
SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS FORMERLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD, AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
KANSAS CITY. THIS HAS YIELDED NEARLY CALM WINDS, WHICH HAS KEPT
OUR WIND CHILLS WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR TODAY, A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES (WITH ATTENDANT VORT
MAXES) PIVOTING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DESCEND OUT OF CANADA, WITH ONE COMING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ANOTHER COMING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FLURRIES COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR EAST AS OUR CWA, WITH ADDITIONAL FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE, THESE IMPULSES WILL JUST BRING
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND SOME SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO UPPER TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO
REGION-WIDE, WITH WIND CHILLS ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MINT AT MCI
FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS NEGATIVE 6, WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD
LOW FOR JAN 21ST. THE NBM GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
THE RECORD TO BE BROKEN. DUE TO THESE SIGNIFICANT COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, AND WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY TOWARD NE MISSOURI), BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AND REBOUND CLOSER TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCENDS OUT OF
MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, YIELDING SOME THETA E ADVECTION. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGH PASSES, IT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK UP
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT/ TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY GUST TO 20 KTS BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...CDB
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