884
FXUS63 KEAX 160522
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING, AND WILL
NOT RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
- 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 36.
- WINTER STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED ALL WEEK,
WITH THE COLDEST OCCURRING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWS
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TRANS PECOS, WITH A
70+ KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
BIG BEND AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE OZARKS. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS
WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WITH MAYBE A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, ARCTIC
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER TROUGHING
ENVELOPES MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH A 504 DAM
500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NW MISSOURI,
WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, WIND
CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO. COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
BY MONDAY, THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA SLIDES
EASTWARD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH STRONG WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION (500 MB WINDS UP TO 70 KNOTS). A
MID LEVEL VORT MAX TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN TO DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
ON MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A
BIT SNOWIER WITH THIS OVER THE PAST FEW CYCLES, AND 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS VERY WELL MAY NECESSITATE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES.
A STRONGER MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OUR REGION WILL BE
POSITIONED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A VERY STRONG 250
MB JET STREAK, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION (SIMILAR TO
LAST WEDNESDAYS EVENT), BUT WITH VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILES AND
SNOW RATIOS CLOSE TO 20 TO 1, ANY AMOUNT OF QPF AT ALL SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SOME DECENT SNOW TOTALS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, TOO, WHICH LEADS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL. ENSEMBLE AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY
BULLISH ON AT LEAST 2" TO 3" OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA,
WITH 5+" BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY (OVER 50%) FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS WATCH
GETS EXTENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD, DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 FORECAST CYCLES.
ASIDE FROM THE SNOW CHANCES, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE
SINGLE DIGITS, WITH NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AS COLD AS 5 BELOW ZERO
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO (LIKELY BACK TO BACK RECORD LOWS AT MCI
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY), WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, IT WOULD
NECESSITATE AT LEAST A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN AN EXTREME COLD WARNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
AN AREA OF SNOW FLURRIES HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN
MO. BARELY NOTABLE ON RADAR, AND FORMING ON A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE, THEY'RE NOT VISIBLE MORE THAN 40-50 MILES
BEYOND THE RADAR. SO HAVE ADDED 6SM -SN MENTION OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THESE FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING IN LOW
MVFR CEILINGS AND BY 10Z, THOSE CEILINGS MAY START TO RISE. HAVE
TRENDED TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST THE DAY SUNDAY, BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ043>046-053-054.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ057-060.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...CDB
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