401
FXUS63 KEAX 160939
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES 20-40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN STORE FOR THIS
WEEK.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 STARTING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES
SHAPE TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK WITH SNOW AND BITTER TEMPERATURES
DEFINING THE WEEK AHEAD. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING
HOURS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
SURFACE HIGH DIPPING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEST TO EAST CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WON'T REACH ABOVE FREEZING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 20S
(SOUTH OF I-70) TO THE TEENS (MAINLY NORTH OF I-70). LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
WINTER WEATHER SYNOPTICS & FORECAST:
AS OF 06Z, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 CONSISTS OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST. IN REGARDS TO THE MAIN FEATURES
DRIVING POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THIS WEEK, THERE IS A
ROBUST CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. OVER THE WEST COAST, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS TRAVERSING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS. MODELS PROJECT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA PULLING THE PREEXISTING MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTHWEST CONUS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE
TEENS (WITH COLDER TEMPERATURE ALOFT) BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH RESIDING OVER MUCH NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE
SNOWFALL WINDOW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TOP-DOWN SATURATION
WITH RESPECT TO THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. ALSO, WHEN THE MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES, FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT PROFILES WITHIN THE DGZ AS WELL. THIS COULD MEAN SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE EFFICIENT WITH MOST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT TIMEFRAME. GFS 12-HR SNOW AMOUNTS ENDING AT 18Z
MONDAY ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL HAS ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. EC HAS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES
IN THE SAME 12-HR WINDOW. PROBABILISTIC NBM GIVES A 50-70% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ALONG HIGHWAY 136 IN FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY. FOR THE KANSAS CITY METRO, THE NBM
SHOWS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF RECEIVING A TRACE OF SNOW MONDAY
MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 STARTING AT 06Z THIS MORNING THROUGH
00Z (6PM CST) TOMORROW. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS PREVAILING SURFACE FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR OUR CWA
FOR MOST THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE PERSISTING COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-
70 AND IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TUESDAY LARGELY DUE
TO LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 06Z TUESDAY
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AS THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF I-70. WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE 700MB SUPPORTS WEST-TO-EAST SNOWBAND DEVELOPMENT ALONG
SAID AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTOGENESIS IS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD ALLOW PROLONGED SNOWFALL OVER THOSE AREAS. PROBABILISTIC
NBM GIVES A 50-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 FROM IN THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
KANSAS CITY METRO HAS A 40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE SAME
THRESHOLD FOR THAT SAME PERIOD. WARNING HEADLINES APPEAR TO BE MORE
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE METRO AT THIS TIME. THOUGH, THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM WARNING HEADLINE FOR THE METRO, WITH A
30-50% CHANCE OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. GLOBAL MODELS
PAINT ANYWHERE FROM 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE METRO THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY.
DANGEROUS COLD IS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
AUGMENTING THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGHS WON'T ESCAPE THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ADDITIONALLY, WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OR AT -25 DEGREES F MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70 EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE, AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KANSAS CITY METRO UP THROUGH
NORTHERN MISSOURI STARTING 06Z TUESDAY AND GOING THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WATCH MAY CHANGE BETWEEN ISSUANCE
AND LATER FORECASTS. LASTLY, WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -20 DEGREES F
ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI EACH OF THOSE MORNINGS AS
WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
AN AREA OF SNOW FLURRIES HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN
MO. BARELY NOTABLE ON RADAR, AND FORMING ON A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE, THEY'RE NOT VISIBLE MORE THAN 40-50 MILES
BEYOND THE RADAR. SO HAVE ADDED 6SM -SN MENTION OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THESE FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING IN LOW
MVFR CEILINGS AND BY 10Z, THOSE CEILINGS MAY START TO RISE. HAVE
TRENDED TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST THE DAY SUNDAY, BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-011>016-020>023-028>030-037.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ043>046-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR MOZ001>006-011>016-022>024.
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ025-102>105.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ057-060.
DISCUSSION...HAYES
AVIATION...CDB
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