684
FXUS63 KEAX 162350
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NE KANSAS AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN
MISSOURI, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
- SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON TRACK TO IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
- 5 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE TO LIKELY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
- 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS BETWEEN US HIGHWAY 36 AND
INTERSTATE 70.
- EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 12 PM THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWS
VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS, WITH AN 80
KNOT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, THROUGH
MISSOURI, AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS APPALACHIA.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP, CLOSED 500 DAM CLOSED H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE, A 986 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC, WITH A 1033 MB HIGH OVER
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT
ENOUGH TO YIELD BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
NEBRASKA SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO NW MISSOURI BY TONIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. MEANWHILE,
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA PIVOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER. A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
SNOW BAND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE NEBRASKA, MOVING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI BY LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM NE KS/NW MO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NE MISSOURI,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAR NW MISSOURI IN THE ROCK PORT
AREA. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A FEW
MORE COUNTIES, AND THE START TIME WAS MOVED BACK TO 3 AM MONDAY
(END TIME OF 6 PM MONDAY). SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE KC METRO AND THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 1". ASIDE
FROM THE SNOW TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 2 DEGREES ACROSS FAR NW MISSOURI TO 12 DEGREES TOWARD THE
OZARK PLATEAU. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
A VERY STRONG 250 MB JET STREAK, AND WITH LOW LEVEL ASCENT,
WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, THIS SHOULD ALL
PROVIDE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION (SIMILAR TO LAST WEDNESDAYS
EVENT), BUT MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN AND
PWATS ABOVE 0.4 INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOISTURE
QUALITY DECREASES AS YOU APPROACH INTERSTATE 70, AND ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-70. VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW
RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 TO 1, HOWEVER, SO EVEN 0.25" OF
QPF WOULD TRANSLATE TO AROUND 5". PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE 50% PROBABILITY LINE FOR 5 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW (WHICH IS
WARNING CRITERIA) SETTING UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70. THERE IS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD (75 TO 80%) FOR SNOW TO EXCEED 5" ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES (LINN KS, BATES AND CLINTON MO), AND IT IS
HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT THIS AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING ON THE MID SHIFT TONIGHT. WE CONSIDERED EXPANDING
THE WINTER STORM WATCH A BIT FURTHER NORTH, BUT DECIDED TO LET
IT RIDE FOR NOW, AND THE MID SHIFT CAN RE EVALUATE BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE SNOW CHANCES, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE
SINGLE DIGITS, WITH NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AS COLD AS 5 BELOW ZERO
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. ACCORDINGLY, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 12 PM THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE, CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AT MCI SUGGEST
BREAKING THE RECORD LOWS ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI (NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 36) IS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT; THEN
DETERIORATE AS -SN MOVES IN TOMORROW MORNING. -SN IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MCI AND STJ TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
IN START TIME, BUT THE DURATION OF -SN IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS HAVE PROGRESSED THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY. MVFR CIGS SETTLE IN BEHIND -SN.
WINDS REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
MOZ001>007-011>017-020>025-030>033-040.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-011>016-020>023-028>030-037.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ043>046-053-054.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ025-102.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ025-102>105.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ057-060.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...PESEL
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