418
FXUS63 KEAX 171147
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY: LIGHT SNOWFALL MAINLY N MISSOURI. GENERALLY 1" TO 3"
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
* LATE TONIGHT - TUESDAY: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL MAINLY S OF
HIGHWAY 36.
- WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70, INCL KC METRO
- GENERALLY 5" TO 10" POSSIBLE FROM N TO S
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY N OR WARNING AREA (~I-70 - HWY 36)
- GENERALLY 2" TO 5" POSSIBLE FROM N TO S
* DANGEROUS COLD: FROM TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY OVER WHOLE AREA
- COLDEST WIND CHILLS AROUND -10 TO -25 FROM SE TO NW
- EXTREME COLD WATCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING
- POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS -25 TO -30
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A FAIR AMOUNT TO UNPACK WITH THIS DISCUSSION ... WITH COUPLE ROUNDS
OF SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD, NUMEROUS HEADLINE ALTERNATIONS AND
ISSUANCES THIS MORNING. BUT FIRST ...
EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY QUIET OVER THE AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CEILING LOWERING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS/CONFIRMS LARGE SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH ANY
NOTABLE DISTURBANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
RADAR RETURN ARE OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST, BUT LITTLE
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH NEAR-SURFACE DRY
AIR WINNING OUT. EXCEPTION BEING INDICATED BANDING COMING OUT OF
KS AND TOPEKA ASOS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW.
FOR TODAY, NOT NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECASTED SNOWFALL AND
ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
NEAR/ABOVE THE 850MB LEVEL WILL CONTINUE CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE
COLUMN AND PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ADVERTISED FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
PERIODS OF TRANSIENT BANDING WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN/AROUND
850-700MB LAYER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE/ADVECTING IN AND F
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WANING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ANY HIGHER END POTENTIAL SNOWFALLS WILL BE LIMITED. PROFILES
NEARLY ENTIRELY WITHIN THE DGZ, EXPECT EFFICIENT SNOWFALL AND SLRS
IN THE TEENS:1. ONGOING FORECAST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES REMAINS UNCHANGED.
NARROW/ISOLATED AREA APPROACHING 4", ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
NE/IA/KS/MO BORDER MAY BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING, LIGHT SNOWFALL TO "HEAVY" FLURRIES MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL EXPECTED, BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH MAY BE SEEN ACROSS AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-70.
BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY, SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS, BRINGING WITH IT STRONG/WIDESPREAD
LIFT AND ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED STEADFAST IN THEIR DEPICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY THE EURO SUITE. THE GFS SUITE HAS SHOWN SUBTLE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD OF THE PEAK AREA, BUT LARGELY IN LINE WITH EURO WITH
REGARDS TO LOCATION. AS WE ENTER THE HI-RES MODEL WINDOWS, CAN BEGIN
TO ASSESS THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE, WHICH IS COMMON WITH
MANY WINTER SYSTEMS. IN THIS CASE, SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS
REMAINS EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY
STATIONARY AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW. THAT
SHOULD HELP LIMIT TRADITIONAL BUST POTENTIAL OF NORTHERLY DRY AIR
ADVECTING IN. JET DYNAMICS ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL WITH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS OF MISSOURI IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. HOW FAR NORTH TRANSIENT BANDING AND BROADER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND/ABOVE 850MB LINGERS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TOP
END POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN EDGES OF THE WARNING AND ADVISORY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, PROFILES ALMOST ENTIRELY IN THE DGZ WILL YIELD
EFFICIENT AND FLUFFY SNOWFALL, ONCE AGAIN WITH SLRS LIKELY AROUND
THE TEENS:1. WON'T BE HARD TO PRODUCE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITHIN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. PROBABILITIES FOR >6" REMAIN
GREATEST NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 WITH VALUES 50% OR GREATER, AROUND
75% AT THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER WITH SGF. FOR >4" 50% CHANCES OR
GREATER PUSH UP TO ST. JOSEPH AND THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR, AND 90%
OR GREATER TO THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. PUT ANOTHER WAY, CURRENT
25/75 SPREAD IS APPROXIMATELY 4" TO 8" OVER THE KC METRO, 3" TO 5"
AROUND ST. JOSEPH, AND AROUND 6" TO 10" TOWARD BUTLER AND SEDALIA.
WITH ALL THAT IN MIND, WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AREAS EXPANDED AND ISSUED TO GENERALLY ALIGN WITH THOSE
PROBABILITIES AND LOCAL CRITERIA.
WHILE CONDITIONS DRY OUT REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HIGH OOZING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THAT DOES NOT MEAN
THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. ALREADY COLD CONDITIONS AT PRESENT
WILL BECOME COLDER YET WITH REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR MASS TONIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS. CONCURRENT WIND CHILLS WILL BE
BELOW ZERO FROM TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS INCLUDES COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE -20S DEG F. COLDEST MORNING MAY BE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CURRENT FORECAST MORNING LOWS WIDELY -10 DEG F OR COLDER AND WIND
CHILLS WIDELY -20 DEG F OR COLDER. AS A RESULT, PLETHORA OF COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, DO HAVE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTREME COLD WARNING TO BE ISSUED.
REGARDLESS, BE SURE TO DRESS IN MULTIPLE WARM LAYERS IF HAVING TO
TRAVEL OR BE OUTSIDE FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD ALSO
BE TAKEN TO PROTECT WATER PIPES AND TO LIMIT OUTDOOR TIME FOR PETS.
WARMING CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
INCLUDES THE RETURN OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY BY
SATURDAY OR CERTAINLY BY SUNDAY. POSSIBLE 50S BY MONDAY EVEN. LONG
RANGE FORECASTS REMAIN STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF MILD (THINK MUCH WARMER
THAN CURRENT) CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY MOVED IN ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF MO A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TAFS 12Z-18Z. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIG LOWERED IN THE SNOW WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES 2SM BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MO THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS BEGIN TO
GUST AFTER SUNSET AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH AND START TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-22KT AFTER 03Z. SNOW,
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1SM AND OVC015 CIGS EXPECTED 03Z-06Z
TIME PERIOD AND REMAIN THROUGH FORECAST TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ001>007-011>017-020>025-030>033-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ011>013-020>022-030>033-039-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>032-037>039-
043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ028-029-037-038-043>046-053-054.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-
102.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-102>105.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...MAK
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