459
FXUS63 KEAX 172356
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.
- 4 (NORTH) TO 7 (SOUTH) INCHES IS POSSIBLE TO LIKELY FOR THE
KC METRO.
- UP TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE WELL SOUTH OF THE KC METRO FROM LINN
COUNTY KS TO HENRY COUNTY MO.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SNOW FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI HAS MOSTLY COME TO AN END, WITH ONLY A FEW
FLURRIES REMAINING. THIS PRODUCED SNOW TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1
TO 3 INCHES. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL PERIOD, BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (18Z HRRR AND NAM NEST) SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FGEN BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE US HIGHWAY 36
CORRIDOR TO INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 9 PM AND CONTINUING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE ANOTHER LULL PERIOD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
BY LATE TONIGHT, ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD THEN RE ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING, OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGES WERE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE 5+
INCH SNOW TOTALS, AND A TIGHTER GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE KC METRO SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 (NORTH) TO
6-7 INCHES (SOUTH). UP TO 8 (AND MAYBE EVEN 9) INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (LINN KS, BATES AND
HENRY MO). CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO SNOW TOTALS IS MODERATE.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD ON TOTALS TODAY
(AND HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD OVERALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS), WITH THE NBM ONLY GIVING DOWNTOWN KC A 50% CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO EXCEED 4" (AND ONLY A 27% CHANCE TO EXCEED 6").
REGARDLESS, WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT
TOMORROW WITHIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
ASIDE FROM THE SNOW, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TOMORROW,
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO (RECORD LOW AT MCI IS
POSSIBLE). BY WEDNESDAY, THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES INTO
EASTERN IOWA, WITH A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL YIELD SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. RECORD BREAKING
COLD IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
MCI FORECAST TO DROP TO 11 BELOW ZERO. THIS WOULD BREAK THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 3 BELOW ZERO SET BACK IN 1936. RECORD
BREAKING COLD IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AS SUCH, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 9 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
6 PM WEDNESDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. AS OF NOW, WE HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE EXTREME COLD WATCH, BUT ITS POSSIBLE AT
LEAST NW MISSOURI ENDS UP IN AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.
THANKFULLY, A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY, AND CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FINALLY
RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
FORECAST BY MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
SNOW COMES TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW IS RESTARTING ACROSS NW MO. THIS BAND OF -SN SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THROUGH THE
NIGHT, A LARGER WINTER SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. DRIER
AIR ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HEAVIER SNOWFALL
SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER.
SNOW REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MCI AND TERMINALS
SOUTH. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AS WELL AS SOME BREAKS IN THE
SNOWFALL ARE ANTICIPATED CAUSING LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN VIS.
WINDS PERSIST FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND ~15-20
KNOTS AT TIMES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS | COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 -7|1903 02-18 11|1936
02-19 -3|1936 02-19 11|1929
02-20 2|1918 02-20 12|1918
02-21 0|1939 02-21 19|1963
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 -16|1978 02-18 8|1936
02-19 -10|2015 02-19 10|1929
02-20 -1|1918 02-20 9|1918
02-21 1|1918 02-21 14|1963
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES | NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 24 02-18 45
02-19 25 02-19 45
02-20 25 02-20 45
02-21 25 02-21 46
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 22 02-18 44
02-19 22 02-19 44
02-20 23 02-20 44
02-21 23 02-21 45
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MOZ011>013-020>022-030>033-039-040-046.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>032-037>039-
043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ028-029-
037-038-043>045-053-054.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-
102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-102>105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
103>105.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...PESEL
CLIMATE...CDB
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