902
FXUS63 KEAX 180943
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY: PERIODS OF SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
- ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36
- KC METRO AND I-70 CORRIDOR, ADDITIONAL 2" TO 5" POSSIBLE
- SOUTH OF KC METRO/I-70, 4" TO 9" POSSIBLE
* DANGEROUS COLD: CONTINUES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY OVER WHOLE AREA
- COLDEST WIND CHILLS AROUND -10 TO -25 FROM SE TO NW
- EXTREME COLD WATCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING
- POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS -25 TO -30
* QUIETER, AND MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
- WIDESPREAD 40S BY SUNDAY
- WIDESPREAD 50S (EVEN SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE) EARLY WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
LESS CHAOS WITH REGARDS TO ISSUING/ADJUSTING WINTER WEATHER AND COLD
HEADLINES. MUCH OF THAT REMAINS UNCHANGED OR WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOWFALL SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 36
CORRIDOR YESTERDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY DROPPED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
KC METRO. WITH PROFILES NEARLY FULLY DENDRITIC, SNOWFALL WAS
EFFICIENT AND RESULTED IN INITIAL REPORTS OF UP TO A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOWFALL IN AREAS OF THE NORTH METRO AND TOWARD HIGHWAY 36. AS IT
GRADUALLY DROPPED SOUTHWARD, INTENSITY LESSENED, BUT CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE QUITE COLD, WITH EVERY SITE IN THE CWA IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OR COLDER, INCLUDING MUCH OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
COLD, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE OR CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH HAVE ALSO PUSHED WIND
CHILL VALUE WELL BELOW ZERO, APPROACHING -20S DEG F IN SOME CASES.
ALL IN ALL, BITTER WINTER CONDITIONS.
FOR TODAY, EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
GENERALLY FROM HIGHWAY 36 SOUTHWARD. BROAD SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND JET ENTRANCE SUPPORT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT ITSELF WOULD NOT
ACCUMULATE MUCH GIVEN GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE. BIGGEST QUESTION MAY
BE HOW FAR NORTHWARD FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING AND SOME ~800-700MB
ISENTROPIC LIFT/SUPPORT ARE ABLE TO SET UP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SHOULD IT STRUGGLE TO APPROACH I-70 CORRIDOR, LOWER END
AMOUNTS OF THE FORECAST RANGE (SEE BELOW) WILL PREVAIL, AND
CERTAINLY THE OPPOSITE IF ABLE TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH NORTH.
OVERALL, FORECAST FOR TODAY DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE, KEEPING THE KC METRO AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE IMPACTFUL (READ AS HEADLINE WORTHY) ACCUMULATIONS.
OFFICIAL FORECAST RESULT IS ADDITIONAL 3" TO 5" SNOWFALL TODAY
ACROSS THE KC METRO AND I-70 CORRIDOR FROM N TO S, WITH BIGGEST PUSH
LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS LARGELY
REFLECTED WELL WITHIN THE NBM PROBABILITIES, INCLUDING 25TH/75TH
SPREADS OF 2" TO 5" AND 3" TO 7" OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH METRO
AREAS RESPECTIVELY. SIMILAR SPREADS ARE SEEN DOWN I-70. VARIOUS HI-
RES MODEL SUITES SUGGEST SIMILAR WITH ADDITIONAL DETERMINISTIC
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2" TO 6", QUICKLY TAPERING AS YOU WORK
NORTHWARD. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOO REMAIN LARGELY ON TRACK,
IF NOT SLIGHTLY LIGHTER IN AMOUNTS. SOUTHERN CWA (BUTLER/CLINTON
AREAS) WILL CONTINUE WITH 25TH/75TH FORECASTS OF 5" TO 8", GREATER
AS YOU WORK INTO THE SGF CWA. GIVEN THE LIGHT/FLUFFY NATURE OF THE
SNOW AND ANTECEDENT VERY COLD CONDITIONS, TRAVEL HAZARDS MAY BE TIED
MORE CLOSELY TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL PERIODS,
PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S MPH, AND/OR SNOW
KICKED UP BY TRAVELING VEHICLES VERSUS COMPACTED SNOW ON
ROADWAYS. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, ADISORY AND WARNING HEADLINES
REMAIN UNCHANGED THIS MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING, BUT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO A GOOD PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY AS ONE
MORE LOBE OF FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AS THE LARGER CUTOFF
MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE ALREADY ABUNDANTLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE TO NEAR-SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS AND
USHERS IN REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALSO LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LOW TEMPERATURE AND MIN-MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING BROKEN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS
REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE COLDEST IN REGARD TO AIR TEMPERATURE WITH AT
LEAST PARTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH INFLUENCE IN PLACE. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST RELATED TO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S DEG F BELOW ZERO
EACH OF THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS. AS SUCH, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR NW AREAS
TO NEED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AS WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH -30
DEG F. FORTUNATELY, GOOD NEWS TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
BY FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD, RETURNING SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE
EXTREMELY COLD PERIOD. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE NW FLOW, WHICH COULD PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT AT
LIGHT SNOW, BUT FOR NOW REMAINS DRY IN THE GOING FORECAST.
EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BACK INTO THE 40S (SUN) AND 50S+ (MON/TUE) AS S/SW
SURFACE FLOW LARGELY AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PREVAIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
DETERIORATED FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BAND OF -SN IS MEANDERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SN
ENVELOPING ALL OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MORE SN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF STJ. NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 15-25 KNOTS IMPACTING
VIS WITH BLSN.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS | COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 -7|1903 02-18 11|1936
02-19 -3|1936 02-19 11|1929
02-20 2|1918 02-20 12|1918
02-21 0|1939 02-21 19|1963
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 -16|1978 02-18 8|1936
02-19 -10|2015 02-19 10|1929
02-20 -1|1918 02-20 9|1918
02-21 1|1918 02-21 14|1963
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES | NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 24 02-18 45
02-19 25 02-19 45
02-20 25 02-20 45
02-21 25 02-21 46
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 22 02-18 44
02-19 22 02-19 44
02-20 23 02-20 44
02-21 23 02-21 45
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MOZ011>013-020>022-030>033-039-040-046.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>032-037>039-
043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ028-029-
037-038-043>045-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MOZ014>017-023>025.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-
102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-102>105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
103>105.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...PESEL
CLIMATE...CDB
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