071
FXUS63 KEAX 190456
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1056 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
- BITTER COLD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
- LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
H3 JET STREAK HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BUT ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THAT IS KEEPING
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44 AND
INTERSTATE 70. THIS IS ALSO FORCING A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS
THE OZARKS REGION. EXPECTING THIS MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA TO MAINTAIN
BROADSCALE LIFT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS HWY. 36 THOUGH CAMS HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THIS
SECOND WAVE. CAMS HAVE BEEN POINTING TO REDUCED EPV AND FGEN
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HWY. 50, AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWS SNOW
BANDING HAS BEEN ONGOING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR,
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE
12Z HREF MEAN. STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY ALONG WITH THE WEAK CYCLONE. THIS WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NEARLY PART OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OVERALL
THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER AND FLUFFY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER
VISIBILITIES, AND MAY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 06Z, EXPECTING TO BRING
AN END NEW SNOWFALL. WE MAY STILL SEE LIGHT FLURRIES OR ICE CRYSTALS
FLOATING AROUND THOUGH, GIVEN THE DGZ IS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. AREAS WITH HEAVIER SNOWPACK MAY STILL SEE BLOWING SNOW INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS REMAIN ABOVE 20 MPH UNTIL ABOUT 12Z.
THE NEXT STORY AFTER THE SNOWFALL IS DONE WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH PATTERN EXITS THE
REGION, AND GIVES WAY TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WORKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS REGIME WILL BRING IN
A STRONGER SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THIS REGIME WILL ADVECT A DRY, ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS, AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A FEW FLURRIES MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE
WILL BE IN THE DGZ, WITH ICE CRYSTALS FLOATING AROUND. THIS WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE TO ANYTHING, GIVEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. COLDEST
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A TROUGH WILL START TO
DRIVE THE RIDGING EASTWARD, AND PUSH THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE GULF
COAST. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT, THE LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW 10
PERCENT. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, PUSHING TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS, ABOUT 30%,
SO WILL MENTION A SCATTERED GROUP AT 2500 FEET AND MAINTAIN THE
VFR CEILING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AROUND
10 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS | COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 -7|1903 02-18 11|1936
02-19 -3|1936 02-19 11|1929
02-20 2|1918 02-20 12|1918
02-21 0|1939 02-21 19|1963
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 -16|1978 02-18 8|1936
02-19 -10|2015 02-19 10|1929
02-20 -1|1918 02-20 9|1918
02-21 1|1918 02-21 14|1963
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES | NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 24 02-18 45
02-19 25 02-19 45
02-20 25 02-20 45
02-21 25 02-21 46
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 22 02-18 44
02-19 22 02-19 44
02-20 23 02-20 44
02-21 23 02-21 45
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MOZ001-002-011-012-020.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-002-011-012-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ003>008-
013>017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ038-
043>045-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ039-
040-046.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
KSZ025-102.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
103>105.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...CDB
CLIMATE...CDB
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