962
FXUS63 KEAX 191129
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY: SOME FLURRIES LIKELY AT TIMES, NO ACCUMULATIONS
* DANGEROUS COLD: CONTINUES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THRU THURS AM OVER MOST OF AREA
- COLDEST WIND CHILLS AROUND -15 TO -25 FROM SE TO NW
- EXTREME COLD WARNING TONIGHT FAR NW MISSOURI COUNTIES
- WIND CHILLS -25 TO -30
* MUCH WARMER INTO WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
- SATURDAY: ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
- SUNDAY: WIDESPREAD 40S TO LOW 50S
- MON/TUE: WIDESPREAD 50S TO LOW 60S
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE MUCH QUIETER WITH
BULK WINTER STORM SYSTEM HAVING MOVED EASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF BROAD
SUBSIDENCE, SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. HOT ON HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM THOUGH IS ANOTHER
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW. LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME, BUT FLURRIES ARE NOT DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE IN
THESE VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIRMASS REGIMES. FORTUNATELY, LITTLE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOW-END CONCERNS FOR "STREAMERS" OF SNOW
ACROSS ROADWAYS TODAY CAUSING TRACK-ICING WITH WINDS UP TO 15G20MPH
AND LOFTED SNOW FROM TRAVELING VEHICLES ON UNPLOWED/UNCLEAR
ROADWAYS. OTHERWISE, PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY, AND REALLY
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK, WILL TURN TO THE BITTER COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. PICK YOUR WAY OF LOOKING AT IT...
* MAXIMUM TEMPS +5 TO AROUND +15 DEG F TODAY/THUR
* MINIMUM TEMPS BELOW ZERO TODAY/THUR/FRI
- COLDEST THUR MORNING, -5 TO -15 DEG F SE TO NW
* WIND CHILLS WIDELY REMAINING BELOW ZERO THRU THURSDAY MORNING
- MINIMUM WIND CHILLS (SE TO NE) -15 TO -30 DEG F TODAY/THUR
IT IS VERY COLD. UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. COLDEST
PERIODS, AS NOTED ABOVE, WILL GENERALLY BE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW. WHILE HIGH LIKELY CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING, IT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST WITH EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WHILE CENTERED MORE OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING SIGNALS FOR MID-UPPER CLOUD COVER
TO LIMIT BOTTOM END TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. BE SURE TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS IF NEEDING TO BE OUTSIDE OR TRAVELING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY END OF WEEK, MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND. AND REBOUND THEY WILL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE) SURFACE AND NEAR-
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SURGE BACK ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING 40S/LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AND WIDESPREAD
50S TO LOW 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. PEERING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK,
FAIRLY ALIGNED SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AROUND
WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION (RAIN), AS WELL AS A NOMINAL COOL DOWN LATE-WEEK (BUT
STILL MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENT).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
WINDS REMAINING N/NNW THROUGHOUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS.
CURRENTLY OVC SKIES AROUND 7-9KFT WILL BROADLY CONTINUE, BUT
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND/AFTER 18Z
AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP PREVAILING INTO MVFR, SO JUST HAVE
LOW-VFR MENTIONS. ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE, FLURRIES LIKELY AT TIMES
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS OR
DETRIMENTAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS | COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 -7|1903 02-18 11|1936
02-19 -3|1936 02-19 11|1929
02-20 2|1918 02-20 12|1918
02-21 0|1939 02-21 19|1963
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 -16|1978 02-18 8|1936
02-19 -10|2015 02-19 10|1929
02-20 -1|1918 02-20 9|1918
02-21 1|1918 02-21 14|1963
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES | NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 24 02-18 45
02-19 25 02-19 45
02-20 25 02-20 45
02-21 25 02-21 46
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 22 02-18 44
02-19 22 02-19 44
02-20 23 02-20 44
02-21 23 02-21 45
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ001-
002-011-012-020.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-002-011-012-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ003>008-
013>017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ025-
102.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
103>105.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
CLIMATE...CDB
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