245
FXUS63 KEAX 192031
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
231 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE
- BITTER COLD
- WARMER BY END OF WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS STILL SITTING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SENT A FEW PULSES INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS JUST ENOUGH
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW FLURRIES WITH THE DGZ JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, BUT DID NOT AMOUNT TO ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAS ALLOWED A STRONG
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
TROPOSPHERE BRINING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. A FEW WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 20 MPH WERE REPORTED AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVED OVERHEAD,
BUT OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AS THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE MOVES IN. EXPECTING A CLEAR NIGHT WITH RATHER CALM
WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INNER-QUARTILE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BETWEEN 12F BELOW TO 8F BELOW. WHILE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH, IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 15F AND 20F BELOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
AND AS LOW AS 28 BELOW IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPANDED THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING FURTHER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO REFLECT
PERSISTENT PROBABILITIES FOR DROPPING BELOW NEGATIVE 25F IN OUR
NORTHWEST.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FORCE THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS
NORTHWESTERLY THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD, AND THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES OR ICE CRYSTALS MAY STILL BE SPOTTED
AT TIMES IF ANY KIND OF WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES AHEAD OF THE RIDGING
PATTERN, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW,
THEREFORE NO ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
SHOULD BE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA, PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO BRING TEMPERATURES UPWARD, BRINING RELIEF TO
THE DANGEROUS COLD. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO COLD TEMPERATURE RELATED
HEADLINES THAT GO BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, FIRST MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXIMA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, CLEARING THE AREA
OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP,
BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT DCVA OCCURS OVER A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO
TRULY DEVELOP A DEEP LOW SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S, POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME WEAK
LIFT, THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO CUT OFF GULF MOISTURE
FROM THE REGION, THUS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS TRY TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT IN THE BIG PICTURE PROBABILITIES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. SUNDAY ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S.
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE FEW DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT MAY TRY TO PUSH A COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, BUT MOST ENSEMBLE SUITES AND DETERMINISTIC
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRONGER FORCING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
THAT OUR LOWER-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS
STEADILY TAKES OUR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AND SOME MEMBERS EVEN REACH THE 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, NBM INNER-QUARTILE RANGES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD EVEN WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVES MOVING THROUGH CANADA, WHICH AT LEAST INDICATES MODEL
CONFIDENCE (BUT NOT NECESSARILY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE) IN THE
TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE OVER THE
COMING DAYS IF THAT TREND TAKES A DRASTIC CHANGE THOUGH. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION, PROBABILITIES FOR ANY KIND OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DO ENTER THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE ABLE TO
ALIGN AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WATCHING A NARROW BAND OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
THAT MAY BRING BRIEF 2SM VISIBILITY TO THE KC METRO TAF SITES,
AS IT DID AT STJ EARLIER. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS | COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 -7|1903 02-18 11|1936
02-19 -3|1936 02-19 11|1929
02-20 2|1918 02-20 12|1918
02-21 0|1939 02-21 19|1963
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 -16|1978 02-18 8|1936
02-19 -10|2015 02-19 10|1929
02-20 -1|1918 02-20 9|1918
02-21 1|1918 02-21 14|1963
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES | NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-18 24 02-18 45
02-19 25 02-19 45
02-20 25 02-20 45
02-21 25 02-21 46
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-18 22 02-18 44
02-19 22 02-19 44
02-20 23 02-20 44
02-21 23 02-21 45
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MOZ001>004-011>013-020-021-028.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-020-021-028.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ005>008-
014>017-022>025-029>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ025-
102-103.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-102-103.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
104-105.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
CLIMATE...CDB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page