287
FXUS63 KEAX 200844
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
244 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY: QUIET, SUNNY, BUT STILL COLD.
* DANGEROUS COLD EASES, BUT STILL COLD THRU FRIDAY
* MUCH WARMER INTO WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
- SATURDAY: WIDESPREAD 30S
- SUNDAY: WIDESPREAD 40S, SOME LOW 50S
- MON/TUE: WIDESPREAD 50S, SOME LOW 60S
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A QUIET, BUT VERY COLD NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT WITH MID-UPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NOW CHURNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS CONTINUES TO LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH NW LARGE SCALE
FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. SAID LARGE SCALE FLOW
TRANSITION HAS ALSO ALLOWED A SIZABLE AND ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE CURRENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK. UNDERNEATH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, A WIDE AREA OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO FROM NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS OF 2 AM THIS MORNING. MOST OF MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS REMAINS SPARED FROM THE BEST/STRONGEST DIURNAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST
AND LIGHT WINDS ONGOING (SOME MIXING OF LOWEST LEVELS). SURFACE HIGH
WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST WEST THIS MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE FROM SE TO NW
ACROSS THE CWA. COUPLED WITH LIGHT (5 TO 10 MPH) WINDS, AND WIND
CHILLS ALREADY IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 20 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TO NO ONE'S SURPRISE, COLD HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS ON THIS CURRENT SHIFT. EXTREME COLD WARNING OVER NW
MISSOURI AND INTO LARGE PARTS OF KANSAS REMAIN AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER REMAINDER OF OUR SERVICE AREA. THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING INTO SGF CWA LARGELY DUE TO THE ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH AND
WARMER WARNING CRITERIA AS YOU WORK SOUTHWARD. REGARDLESS,
DANGEROUSLY COLD FOR ANYONE (OR PETS) CAUGHT OUTSIDE FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS LIKELY YIELDS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS WOULD YIELD
EXTREMELY EFFICIENT DIURNAL COOLING (FRESH SNOW, LIGHT WINDS,
USUALLY CLEAR SKIES), AND IT STILL MAY. BUT, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (>10-15KFT) WITHIN VARIOUS
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD HEAVILY LIMIT BOTTOM
END POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME, FORECAST LOWS ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLOUD
COVER, SO SHOULD CLEARER SKIES PREVAIL, THERE IS THE (UNFORTUNATE)
POTENTIAL TO UNDERSHOOT LOWS BY A HANDFUL OR MORE DEGREES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/CALM THOUGH, LIMITING COLD RISK WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
AND AIR TEMP LARGELY ONE AND THE SAME.
ENOUGH ABOUT THE COLD. WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES BY LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL CARRY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE) SURFACE WINDS. HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
COLUMN FURTHER SIGNAL WARMING TREND. INITIALLY, SNOW PACK WILL LIMIT
TOP END POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD WIDELY SEE NEAR TO ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY SEE JUMPS OF
10 DEG F EACH DAY, YIELDING WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S. A POTENTIAL
SMALL WORD OF CAUTION THOUGH, WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
FREEZING DEW POINTS BEING ADVECTED IN, ANY LINGERING SNOW PACK
"MAY" TEMPER HIGH END TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE EXPERIENCED SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH OF THE LOCAL SNOW MELTS OFF.
WARMING CEASES OR STEPS BACK A FEW DEGREES MID-LATE WEEK WITH
ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WILL NOT BE A
POLAR PLUNGE BY ANY MEANS, POTENTIALLY JUST A REGRESSION CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WELCOME WARMING EITHER WAY.
NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WELL ADVERTISED WITHIN DETERMINISTIC SYNOPTIC
GUIDANCE AND ITS ENSEMBLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT WILL
BATTLE SUBSTANTIALLY DRY AIR IN THE 900-650MB LAYER. SPORADIC
DEPICTIONS OF LIGHT QPF IS REASONABLE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE QPF REMAIN HARD TO COME BUY. AS SUCH, HAVE KEPT FROM ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. ASIDE FROM THAT, THE NEXT
SUBSTANTIAL OPPORTUNITY PRESENTS ITSELF MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS A LARGER TROUGH TO CUT-OFF
LOW DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS IN TRACK TAKING CENTER OF TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW LARGELY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, LEAVING MOST
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. DRY AIR MASS AHEAD MAY LIMITED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS,
AND SEEMS REFLECTED IN NBM POPS OF 20-30%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS LOOK STEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH AT 5-10 MPH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS | COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-19 -3|1936 02-19 11|1929
02-20 2|1918 02-20 12|1918
02-21 0|1939 02-21 19|1963
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-19 -10|2015 02-19 10|1929
02-20 -1|1918 02-20 9|1918
02-21 1|1918 02-21 14|1963
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES | NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY
02-19 25 02-19 45
02-20 25 02-20 45
02-21 25 02-21 46
ST. JOSEPH ST. JOSEPH
02-19 22 02-19 44
02-20 23 02-20 44
02-21 23 02-21 45
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ001>004-
011>013-020-021-028.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ005>008-
014>017-022>025-029>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ025-102-103.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ057-060-104-
105.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CDB
CLIMATE...CDB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page