953
FXUS63 KEAX 202329
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STILL COLD, BUT NOT FORECAST AT HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
- WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THERE ARE TWO MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXES WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, THE SECOND IS CROSSING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS HAS CREATED A COMPACT RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STRENGTHEN THE
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MODEST RIDGE
AXIS WILL PREVENT THE NORTHERLY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM REACHING OUR
AREA AND INHIBITS ANY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. H5 HEIGHTS MAY
ACTUALLY EXPERIENCE A SUBTLE RISE THROUGH OUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY. ON THE IMMEDIATE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE, THERE ARE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SECOND RIDGE AXIS THAT
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY. 36. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, THEREFORE WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FOR
OUR FAR NORTH, AND JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. THEREFORE, NO COLD WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE THINNER,
SOME AREAS MAY REACH CLOSER TO 15 BELOW ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT
MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINE ISSUANCE. AMONGST NBM
MEMBERS, INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD FOR LOW (AIR) TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 1 BELOW TO 3 ABOVE ZERO.
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, COMPACT RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
AND THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S, WITH UPPER
TEENS FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE MAIN LOBE OF VORTICITY ARRIVES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON, AND MAY PROVIDE WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THAT COULD GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MAIN OBSTACLE FOR ANY KIND OF ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
THOUGH, MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ENSEMBLE CYCLES HAVE
BEEN WAVERING IN THEIR PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AT TIMES GOING AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT, BUT OTHER CYCLES
REMAINING UNDER 10 PERCENT. GIVEN THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING,
HAVE ADDED IN POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS WELL AS FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. WITH THE LACK OF
MOISTURE THOUGH, NO IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, IF ANY
PRECIPITATION HAPPENS AT ALL. THE FORCING SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF TEXAS. THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE STALLS OVER THE GULF REGION, WHICH WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SOUTHERLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WAA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY, WITH
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PERHAPS ON SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE
TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND, AS THE INNER-QUARTILE
SPREAD DIFFERENCES ARE ONLY AROUND 3F TO 4F. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A
FEW MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, BUT
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY IN MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO
UPWARD, REACHING THE 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EVEN HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOWER 60S. ONE FACTOR THAT
COULD PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES NOT ACHIEVING THESE HIGHS IS IF MORE
MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED THAT PROVIDES MORE CLOUD COVER, BUT OVERALL
THERE IS NOT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AND PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A STRONGER LOW SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CONUS THAT INTRODUCES INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES,
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN. GEFS PAINTS 30 TO 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA,
WITH A HEAVIER AXIS OF QPF FOR EASTERN MISSOURI AND AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND, ENSEMBLE SPREADS IN MOST METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS
INCREASES LIKELY A RESULT OF DIFFERENT TRACKS VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE TAKING THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 20-25K FT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...COLLIER
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