823
FXUS63 KEAX 212348
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS PUSHED THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER TOWARD THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL REGION. THERE IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND COMPACT
VORTICITY MAXIMA TRACKING ACROSS KANSAS THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
EXITING RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THOUGH WEAK, FLOW HAS TURNED
SOUTHWESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES EARLY ON HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH INSOLATION
TO GET AIR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REACHING
THE LOWER 20S. SATELLITE HAS BEEN SHOWING CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS
KANSAS ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE, WHICH SHOULD
REACH OUR BY THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST AS THIS FORCING MOVES THROUGH, BUT THE AIR BETWEEN THE
CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. MOST ICE CRYSTAL ACTIVITY LIKELY
SUBLIMATES BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE LIGHT CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT A DRASTIC DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AMONGST NBM
MEMBERS ANY AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ARE WELL BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE. THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EXITS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MID-
MORNING, WITH H5 FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND STRONGER VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
TEXAS, AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWER-LEVEL FLOW SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS REGIME ALSO PROMOTES
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES, AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR ADIABATIC COMPRESSION HEATING INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
HIGH PLAINS. WITH FLOW 850MB AND LOWER ORIENTED SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY, THIS WILL PROVIDE A WAA, AND IS THE SOURCE FOR OUR WARM UP
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY EXPECTING THIS TO PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. INNER-QUARTILE VALUES
AMONGST NBM MEMBERS RANGE BETWEEN 34F AND 38F FOR MOST POINTS IN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES
STILL HAVE LARGER SPREAD, THINKING THE PRIOR COLD SNAP MAY BE
KEEPING SOME MEMBERS TOO LOW IN THAT REGARD. AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER
DOES NOT LINGER MUCH PAST NOON, NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR ISSUES
HITTING THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, WAA REGIME CONTINUES. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO PROG 850MB TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 9.5C, FAVORABLE
FOR YIELDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INNER-QUARTILE RANGE AMONGST NBM MEMBERS IS
AROUND 48 TO 51 FOR MOST LOCATIONS, A LITTLE COOLER FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG THE IOWA STATE LINE. THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
SPREAD IS A BIT LARGER, BUT THINKING THE CORRECTION MEMBERS ARE
STILL INFLUENCING THE LOWER END OF THAT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
PATTERN, THINKING MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HWY. 36 REACH 50 DEGREES
ON SUNDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHWARD. AS FOR PRECIPITATION,
MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF REGION, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA IN DRIER
AIR. THEREFORE, NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST, AND MOST
ENSEMBLE SUITES KEEP ALL PROBABILITIES WELL UNDER 10 PERCENT FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. MONDAY, ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND
STRONGER VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH TEXAS AGAIN, AND KEEPS 850MB TO
925MB WESTERLY WITH MORE DOWN SLOPING, MAINTAINING STRONG WAA. FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S.
HWY. 36 AND SOUTHWARD, MID TO UPPER 50S REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS PERHAPS REACHING THE 60F MARK. EVEN WITH MULTIPLE MID-
LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. THIS
TREND THE CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS WARM UP,
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT MAY DROP BELOW 50F AS A FEW PV ANOMALIES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SEND A FEW SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS THAT ELIMINATE THE 850MB WAA
REGIME. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUD COVER, AND ALSO INTRODUCES THE
NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. WHILE THE PRECEDING WAA IS
ONGOING, FLOW MAY REMAIN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN DUE SOUTH, WHICH
LARGELY LIMITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION. FOR NOW, GEFS
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, AND LESS AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD.
THE NBM IS LOWER ON PROBABILITIES, CLOSER TO THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT
RANGE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN THE MID-LEVEL FORCING
NEXT WEEK, HAVE NOT DEVIATED TOO FAR AWAY FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE RAIN, NO WINTER OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...COLLIER
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