825
FXUS63 KEAX 270405
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1105 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER END TO WORK WEEK - 70S TO LOW 80S
- NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 60.
* SEVERAL SHOWER/STORM OPPORTUNITIES THRU THE WEEKEND.
- OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
- THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, SPC SLIGHT RISK
- SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SPC DAY 5 15%
* COOLER END OF WEEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
- AROUND TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A LOT TO TRY AND UNPACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS/THRU THE
WEEKEND...
TO BEGIN WITH, QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY OOZING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY
OVER WESTERN AREAS. GRADUAL RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
REST OF DAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS E/SE. WHILE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE,
SOME CLOUD COVER AND EVEN VIRGA TO LIGHT RAIN TOO SLIDING ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO NARROW AREA OF MID-LEVEL (~700MB) OF MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
SURFACE HIGH DEPARTURE AND SHIFTING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
PRESENT THE FIRST OF A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUILDING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE/WESTERN PLAINS WILL AIDE IN INDUCING MODEST SW/WSW ORIENTED
LLJ, EVENTUALLY ADVECTING A PLUME OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO
TIMING OF INITIAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, LARGELY BEGINNING
AROUND/AFTER 09Z OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. INITIAL
ACTIVITY TO BE HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE CAPE. DRY
LOW LEVELS COULD LEND TO SOME ISOLATED ENHANCED WIND IF IT CAN PUNCH
THROUGH THE INVERSION. BY AROUND 12Z, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES,
PUSHING CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR GREATER, BUT REMAINING
ELEVATED IN NATURE. EXPECTED UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH WITH
THIS, BUT SEVERE THREAT DEPICTIONS REMAIN LIMITED WITH MARGINAL
EFFECTIVE SHEAR (20S KTS) AND LESS SUBSTANTIAL LAPSE-RATES DEPICTED.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM. SHOWER/CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY BUBBLE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
ADDITIONAL PUSHES OF MOISTURE/WAA, BUT LARGELY THE STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDOW HAS SHIFTED TO THURSDAY EVENING...
BY THURSDAY EVENING, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS, COUPLED WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH SB/MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE
1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE
POOLS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30-35KTS AND MORE STRONGLY
CURVED HODOGRAPH/WIND PROFILES LEND TOWARDS AT LEAST INITIAL
ORGANIZATION BEFORE EXPECTED UPSCALE MCS GROWTH. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN PLAY FOR ANY INITIALLY ISOLATED AND ORGANIZED
SURFACE CONVECTION, TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT AS SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND UPSCALE/MCS GROWTH
OCCURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. SPC DAY
2 SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK IS MORE THAN REASONABLE. THIS WINDOW OF
ACTIVITY MOSTLY FROM AROUND 00Z TO 09Z.
FRIDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PUSH OF WAA, CAPPING OVER THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. HAVE HEDGED THIS DIRECTION,
RESULTING IN HIGHS JUST UNDER THE NBM50TH PERCENTILE. SHOULD
CLEARER SKIES PREVAIL, MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS NO REAL CONSEQUENCE WITH GOING FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S VS POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S.
WEEKEND REMAINS QUITE VARIABLE AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE
DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFT TO ZONAL TO SW FLOW WILL SEE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE REGION. DEPICTION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT, GEOGRAPHIC PLACEMENT, AND TIMING REMAIN WIDE, DRIVING
MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY. NBM POPS RESULT IN TOO MUCH OVER TOO WIDE
OF A TIME FRAME, BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN TRIMMING ANY SPECIFIC
PERIODS. IN REGARDS TO THE BEST WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
REMAINS TIED TO FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH TOO REMAINS VARIABLE. PASSAGE
RANGES FROM AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH EURO/CANADIAN SUITES TENDING TO REMAIN SLOWER THAN GFS SUITE.
REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS NEAR/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH FAIR PARAMETER SPACE DEPICTED.
AI AIDED GUIDANCE TOO HIGHLIGHTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT
AGAIN, DIFFICULT TO MASSAGE OUT ANY MORE DETAILS WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE. SPC DAY 5 15%
IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME FRAME OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COLDER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
SETTLE IN TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD. A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
FROM AROUND 9Z-12Z ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS, SO USED A PROB30 GROUP
FOR -TSRA AT KSTJ. KIXD IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST
TO 20-25 MPH STARTING TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...COLLIER
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