591
FXUS63 KEAX 271118
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING,
ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS EVENING'S ROUND OF STORMS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 295K AND 300K SURFACES. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LACKING, BASED OFF THE LATEST 00Z TOP SOUNDING. BUT
MOVING SOUTH TO THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING, SHOWS THE MOISTURE IS NOT
FAR REMOVED. AND AS THE MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET, WE SHOULD SEE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WITH
500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGHER
INSTABILITY BUILDS INTO NORTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHEASTERN KS
INITIALLY, SO THAT'S THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE MORE ROBUST
STORMS BY 12Z. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION, COMBINED WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. INSTABILITY SPREADS EASTWARD
WITH TIME LATER TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DEEPER LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL AND STRONGER STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO, IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
IMPINGES ON THE WARM FRONT LEADING TO STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND
00Z, GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. GREATER INSTABILITY, STRONGER SHEAR,
AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS AND BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO RISK LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND MAINLY
TIED TO CONVECTION THAT BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE IN THE AREA. IT
JUST LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPS, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES, LIMITING SURFACE BASED PARCELS BEING
INGESTED INTO ANY STORMS.
FRIDAY, STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP, PUSHING A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. WITH VERY WARM
AIR ALOFT, THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED OFF WITH NO STORMS EXPECTED.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THOUGH WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUANCE. SATURDAY, WHILE WE HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING
DURING THE AFTERNOON, IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THE AREA STAYS DRY DUE
TO PERSISTENT WARM AIR ALOFT. MODELS THAT ARE PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SHOW A SATURATED LOWER SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO THIS MAY BE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST DON'T SUPPORT MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS DURING THE DAY. LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THOUGH, ASCENT MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONGER JET
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT, SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MUCH MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY NOT REACH 50 DEGREES FOR THE HIGH. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE IN THE MID 60S. NATURALLY, ANY
FLUCTUATION IN TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROFOUND INFLUENCES
IN THE FORECAST, RANGING FROM COOLER/WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A SLOWER FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. A FASTER FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE RISK FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHERN TO
EASTERN MISSOURI.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TUESDAY INTO THE 50S
AND 60S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTS THE REGION MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES COMBINING
CAPE > 500 J/KG AND 0-500MB BULK SHEAR SHOW SOME PROBABILITIES
OF 30-70%, SUGGESTING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS NEXT WEEK. THIS RISK LOOKS GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES EXIST MAINLY AT STJ FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET WITH A SMALL WINDOW IMPACTS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT STJ SO HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 02-05Z. OUTSIDE OF
STORM CHANCES, EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS AT FL020. DUE TO THE
STRONGER SURFACE GUSTS AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HAVE OPTED TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR IN THE TAF.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...WFOEAX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page