620
FXUS63 KEAX 280935
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH TODAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL WITH
MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL (15-29%) AND DAMAGING WIND (5-14%)
THREAT ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF ST JOSEPH AND ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
NEAR IOWA BOARDER MOVING EASTWARD NEAR LAMONI AIRPORT AT 330 AM.
THESE LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE STRONGER LLJ WINDS IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING PERIODIC SUB
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN WHICH MCI RECEIVED 50 MPH AT AROUND 300AM.
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED NORTHWARD ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND IN
FACT WE SAW SOME LOWER 80S COMPARED TO THE TYPICAL NORMAL HIGHS
IN LOWER 60S FOR LATE MARCH. ST JOSEPH REACHED A HIGH
TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 83F WHICH SET A NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD EXCEEDING THE 82F THAT WAS SET IN 1910. FOR TODAY WE
WILL BE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS AGAIN AS ST
JOSEPH IS FORECASTED FOR 80F WITH THE RECORD OF 84 IN 1968. FOR
MAJORITY OF OTHER LOCATIONS EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF UPPER
70S WITH LOWER 80S IN FAR NORTHWESTERN MO. WHILE THIS IS STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MANY OTHER RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE, FOR EXAMPLE THE RECORD TEMPERATURE AT
MCI IS 88F SET 1895 AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD HIGH.
OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND EXPECTING WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS ARE A CONCERN, THANKFULLY
THERE SHOULD NOT BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN 40-50%. ONLY EXCEPTION
WOULD BE FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN MO IN WHICH EXPECT 32-40%, WHICH
WOULD STILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE FINE.
THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT TRACKS EAST, A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
TIMING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS DIFFERENCE IN MODELS
BUT EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP IN KANSAS AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. ON
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXIST ACROSS THE MUCH
OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH FROM ST JOSEPH TO TRENTON AND MACON.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS THE BOUNDARY TRACKS
EAST. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE MAIN THREAT EXISTS ALONG FRONTAL
LINE ALONG AND EAST OF I35 TO KANSAS CITY AND 291 TO
HARRISONVILLE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING FROM AND EAST OF
LINE FROM HARRISONVILLE TO KIRKSVILLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CHANGES.
LOOKING BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEEKEND, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. DRY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BY
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATE EVENING HEADING INTO
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR KSTJ
TAF SITE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08Z. WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN
AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG
EASTER KS IN LEAVENWORTH AND ATCHISON COUNTIES KS HAVE TAPPED
INTO THE LLJ WINDS WITH THE STORMS ALLOWING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO
65 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. FORM 06Z-07Z HAVE PLACED TEMPO OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40KTS. WHILE THE STRONGER WIND
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER 07Z THERE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS THROUGH 11Z.
NOCTURNAL LLJ AND BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION WILL SEE PERIOD OF
LLWS TO TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 40-45
KT IN THE LOWEST 2K FEET. AFTER 16Z THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST OF 30 TO 35KTS AND THIS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AROUND 01Z. DEVELOPMENT CU IN LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVEING AFTER 01Z NEAR MVFR THRESHOLDS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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