958
FXUS63 KEAX 281853
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
153 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
-COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TODAY WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. FOR REFERENCE THE AVERAGE HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE MARCH IS THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. A
SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE AREA HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35-40 MPH WILL BE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO NO PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS STAYED
ELEVATED TODAY AND SHOULD STAY ABOVE 40% AT MOST LOCATIONS, SO FIRE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, THE DAY TIME HOURS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET IN OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE WEAKER, BUT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THAT, MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH KANSAS. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PREVENT STORM INITIATION UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND EROSION OF THE
CAP. BY MID AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AND TRACK EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY
AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY SHORT WINDOW
EARLY ON. WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT, ROBUST OR SURFACE
BASED STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM IN FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA AROUND 0Z. AS FOR STORM EVOLUTION, EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS
TO INITIATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN QUICKLY MERGING INTO A LINE AS IT
APPROACHES OUR AREA. STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA, HOWEVER HAIL IS STILL A CONCERN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
(ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENT). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST, BUT REGARDLESS THE
THE THREAT EXISTS (ESPECIALLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA). AS WE HEAD
TOWARD MORNING, RENEWED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED IN CONVECTION WITH
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN THE CAMS, THING THE 12Z
HRRR ALIGNS WELL WITH THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH A LINE OF STORMS
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE STORMS PUSHING IN FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE, AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COLD AIR LAGS BEHIND
THE FRONT A BIT, BUT WE CAN EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 50S FOR MOST. HEADING INTO MONDAY,
SIMILAR CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING LOW
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT, A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO THE MID
60S WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS. WINDS MAY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALSO EXPECT A WINDOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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