180
FXUS63 KEAX 290522
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE (15 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAIL IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TODAY
WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. FOR
REFERENCE THE AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE MARCH IS
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. A SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH WILL BE
THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO NO PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS STAYED ELEVATED
TODAY AND SHOULD STAY ABOVE 40% AT MOST LOCATIONS, SO FIRE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, THE DAY TIME HOURS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET IN OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE WEAKER, BUT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THAT, MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH KANSAS. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PREVENT STORM INITIATION UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND EROSION OF THE
CAP. BY MID AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AND TRACK EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY
AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY SHORT WINDOW
EARLY ON. WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT, ROBUST OR SURFACE
BASED STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM IN FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA AROUND 0Z. AS FOR STORM EVOLUTION, EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS
TO INITIATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN QUICKLY MERGING INTO A LINE AS IT
APPROACHES OUR AREA. STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA, HOWEVER HAIL IS STILL A CONCERN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
(ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENT). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST, BUT REGARDLESS THE
THE THREAT EXISTS (ESPECIALLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA). AS WE HEAD
TOWARD MORNING, RENEWED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED IN CONVECTION WITH
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN THE CAMS, THING THE 12Z
HRRR ALIGNS WELL WITH THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH A LINE OF STORMS
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE STORMS PUSHING IN FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE, AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COLD AIR LAGS BEHIND
THE FRONT A BIT, BUT WE CAN EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 50S FOR MOST. HEADING INTO MONDAY,
SIMILAR CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING LOW
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT, A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO THE MID
60S WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU 09Z-11Z WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO ADVECT INTO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS BLW 2KFT ARE EXPECTED
THRU 15Z-17Z WHEN THEY WILL LIFT TO BTN 2-3KFT BEFORE BECMG VFR
AFT 17Z-19Z WITH BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 4KFT. AFT 23Z-01...CIGS
WILL FURTHER LIFT BECMG OVC AROUND 10KFT. WINDS TO BEGIN THE TAF
PD WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BTN 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS
BEFORE THEY WKN TO AROUND 10KTS. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH AFT 15Z-17Z REACHING 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-30KTS BEFORE DMSHG AGAIN AFT 23Z-01Z TO 10-15KTS. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TAF SITES HOWEVER TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION FOR THIS
ISSUANCE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...73
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