866
FXUS63 KEAX 290822
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
322 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAKLY
CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
DURING THE DAY TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WAA CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TONIGHT,
ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH (NOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES) AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS DEPICT A RIBBON
OF NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO 1500-2000J/KG OF MUCAPE
AND 35-40KTS OF BULK SHEER. THESE PARAMETERS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED IN SHORT
LINES AND CLUSTERS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FUELED BY A LLJ AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS HOW LONG
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST AS THE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER, MUCAPE WILL REMAIN AROUND
1000J/KG WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS.
STORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
MODEST CAA IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, THIS
WILL PROVIDE A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MO RANGING TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY SUNDAY. CAA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FROST WHICH MAY
DAMAGE SENSITIVE VEGETATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR MONDAY PROVIDING WEAK MIXING KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT, A
RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD AID IN AVOIDING A FREEZE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE CONUS, THIS COUPLED A RETURN OF MODEST WAA WILL AID IN
HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL HOWEVER, THE DIURNAL TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COUPLED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LOW AT THIS
TIME. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER, THE PATTERN BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES THURSDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES TO THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PARADE OF LEAD SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUE STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU 09Z-11Z WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO ADVECT INTO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS BLW 2KFT ARE EXPECTED
THRU 15Z-17Z WHEN THEY WILL LIFT TO BTN 2-3KFT BEFORE BECMG VFR
AFT 17Z-19Z WITH BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 4KFT. AFT 23Z-01...CIGS
WILL FURTHER LIFT BECMG OVC AROUND 10KFT. WINDS TO BEGIN THE TAF
PD WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BTN 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS
BEFORE THEY WKN TO AROUND 10KTS. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH AFT 15Z-17Z REACHING 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-30KTS BEFORE DMSHG AGAIN AFT 23Z-01Z TO 10-15KTS. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TAF SITES HOWEVER TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION FOR THIS
ISSUANCE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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