488
FXUS63 KEAX 292017
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
LATE TONIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
LONGER WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
A LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE DEFINED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S WITH BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
MPH). BY LATER THIS EVENING, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE ENE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND A 40 TO 45 KNOT MID LEVEL JET STREAK
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NE KANSAS BY AROUND 7 PM, WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN KS.
PER THE SPC HREF, A CORRIDOR OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MU CAPE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WITH 40
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WELL ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO INITIATE. THE PROBLEM IS
THAT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LOOKS TO HANG ON PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS, AND MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY HAVE TROUBLE SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. THAT BEING
SAID, THE 18Z NAM NEST IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE HRRR, AND
DEVELOPS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI BY
AROUND 6 PM. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE
STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CAMS HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE LAGGING PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT, WITH THIS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY TAKING
ON THE APPEARANCE OF A BOW ECHO AS IT NEARS THE MO/KS BORDER IN
THE VICINITY OF FORT SCOTT KS/NEVADA MO BY AROUND 2 TO 3 AM
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS FURTHER
NE INTO MISSOURI INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS BOW ECHO
COULD PERHAPS CLIP PORTIONS OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES, FROM LINN COUNTY KS TO COOPER COUNTY MO (PLEASANTON
KS TO BOONVILLE MO FOR THOSE WHO ARE LESS COUNTY INCLINED). ANY
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD CLEAR
BY AROUND 7 AM SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS LATER TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH A MIDNIGHT HIGH LIKELY FOR
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES ONLY REBOUND A COUPLE
DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WNW
WINDS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S WITH 10 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO
RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, AS MID/UPPER TROUGHING IS
PROGGED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS, WITH VERY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, YIELDING STRONG THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND SPC HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A 15% SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FEET AT THE MOMENT SHOULD
INCREASE SHORTLY, RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE FAR NORTH END OF A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED MCS MAY CLIP THE KC METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 8Z AND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD RELAX A BIT AND
TURN WESTERLY AND WEST NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
MVFR CIGS LIKELY RETURNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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