580
FXUS63 KEAX 301110
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND HAS FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS KANSAS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS (15-25%) INTO LATE
MORNING EXITING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MUCH COOLER AND BLUSTERY
DAY AS MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MID 40S TO MID
50S. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT DROPPING
LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS MAY PRODUCE FROST CAUSING HARM TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY PROVIDING WEAK MIXING KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DESPITE COPIOUS SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MONDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST
OF THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL AID
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AS LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. TUESDAY, A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FROM
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE REGION AS STRONG WAA DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA IS RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES AND MOVING OUT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
HIGHS RANGING INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA. A FEW LEAD SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HOWEVER A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FORCING
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL LIKELY BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. A 65-70KT SSW LLJ WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT AS IT OVERRIDES THE
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT AS THE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO LOOKS CAPPED AND MOISTURE IS ONLY MODEST WITH DEWPOINT
PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 50S. THAT SAID IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT 1500-2000J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHICH WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS
WOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD. LATE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE. THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT TOWARD THE AREA
ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THRU 16Z-17Z WHEN CIGS WILL LIFT
ABV 2KFT BUT REMAIN MVFR. AFT 04Z...CIGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DROP BLW 2KFT REMAINING MVFR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW/NW AT
12-18KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-30KTS THRU 04Z WHEN WIND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNW AND WKN TO AROUND 10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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