964
FXUS63 KEAX 010351
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1051 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30-40 MPH RETURN TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THERE IS A LOT TO UNPACK WITH THE FORECAST, SO LET'S START WITH THE
MORE CLEAR CUT ASPECTS. THIS AFTERNOON IS GOING TO BE FAIRLY QUIET
AND COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND THE AREA REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
THANKS TO A BOOST FROM SOLAR HEATING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE CLEARING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY STRONG LLJ FORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS JET STRETCHES FROM WEST
TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A LARGE
500MB TROUGH TRAVERSES TO THE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A SOUTHERN JET STREAK WHOSE EXIT REGION DUMPS STRAIGHT
INTO WESTERN KS AND OK. THIS HELPS SPIN UP A LEE TROUGH THAT DEEPENS
THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY. WHILE ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS, THE 850MB JET SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN KS
INTO WESTERN MO. UNIMPEDED MIXING FROM THE BASE OF THIS JET TO THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 35-
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED GUSTS OVER
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IT CERTAINLY POSES THE QUESTION OF IF A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS NEEDED. AT THIS CURRENT JUNCTURE,
WIDESPREAD, FREQUENT 45+ MPH GUSTS SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED WEST
OF THE AREA WITH THE FREQUENCY OF 45+ MPH GUSTS IN OUR REGION BEING
MUCH LESS.
THIS WIDE WIND FIELD ALSO RESULTS IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE BEING
VAULTED INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY INCREASE 10-15 DEGREES INTO
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MORE IMPORTANTLY DEW POINTS SOAR ALMOST 25-
30 DEGREES FROM SUNRISE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
CREATES A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
COMPLEX. COLD FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS A DRYLINE ACT AS A CATALYST
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. TIMING
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE AROUND 7-9 PM. FURTHER
ACCELERATED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES SHARPENS THE
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GRADIENT MAINTAINING STORMS. CAM GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWARD A RATHER ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REGION ENTERING FAR NW MO AROUND 10-11 PM, REACHING THE
KC METRO AROUND 12-2 AM WED, AND MARCHING THROUGH SEDALIA AND
KIRKSVILLE AROUND 3-5 AM.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THESE HAZARDS. MUCAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG, DCAPE
NEARING 800 J/KG, AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM BRING ABOUT DECENT
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY UP TO 2 INCHES)
AND DAMAGING WINDS (POSSIBLY 70+ MPH). VERTICAL PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS SHOW AMPLE SHEAR AND HELICITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST 3
KM. WHERE THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS SYSTEM AND HOW IT WILL CHANGE AFTER SUNSET. IT
WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN NOCTURNAL COOLING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
SUNSET, THE LOW LAYERS COOL OFF FORMING AN INVERSION AND GENERALLY
DECOUPLING FROM THE SURFACE. THIS EFFECTIVELY CAUSES CLOUD BASES TO
RISE ABOVE THE INVERSION CREATING ELEVATED STORMS. HOWEVER, WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE STORMS MAY WARM THE LOW LAYERS JUST ENOUGH
FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED. THIS COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND TORNADOES AS SURFACE BASED STORMS
WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE NOTABLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
INDICATED BY MODEL 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS. LOOKING AT CAM MEMBERS WHICH
SPECIFICALLY MAINTAIN THAT SURFACE BASED CONNECTION SHOWS A LARGE
QLCS STRUCTURE. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LEADING SUPERCELLS WHICH IS INCREASINGLY CONCERNING
FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. HOWEVER, MODEL VERTICAL PROFILES
ALSO KEEP THE GENERALLY HIGH BASED STORM ENVIRONMENT. THESE PROFILES
ALSO SHOW WAA POTENTIALLY MAINTAINING THE CAP REDUCING THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS TO RETURN TO SURFACE BASED. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL NOT
GET A CLEAR PICTURE OF HOW THESE STORMS MIGHT BEHAVE UNTIL AFTER
THEY HAVE FORMED IN CENTRAL KS. FORTUNATELY, THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE
AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BEFORE THEY ARRIVE ON OUR DOORSTEP. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE VERSUS ELEVATED STORMS DOES NOT AFFECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
HAZARD THAT IS OFTEN OVERLOOKED IS HEAVY RAINFALL. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.1-1.5 INCHES INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SITS
AROUND 1.2-1.5 INCHES MEANING THAT AN EXCESSIVELY HEAVY DOWNPOUR
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. RIGHT NOW THAT THREAT FOR
FLOODING HAZARDS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW COMPARED TO THE WIND AND
HAIL; HOWEVER, IT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLOOKED. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT
YOU HAVE MULTIPLE METHODS FOR RECEIVING WEATHER ALERTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE WARM AND BREEZY. THE DRY
AIR BEHIND THE STORMS DECREASES CLOUD COVERAGE AND ENABLES
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC LOW MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS. THIS EJECTS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CONUS WHICH COMPETE WITH A MIDLEVEL
HIGH THAT SETTLES ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS HAS BEEN
PUSHING RAIN POTENTIAL IN AND OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN RATHER DIVERGENT BRINGING RAN
INTO AND OUT OF THE REGION FLIPPING ABOUT DEPENDING ON WHICH
SINUSOIDAL PATTERN IT CHOOSES TO RUN WITH. WE WILL DIG INTO THIS
PATTERN EVOLUTION AFTER DEALING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ON DECK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
STRONG SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECTING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECTING MOST BASES TO BE VFR. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THEREFORE, HAVE
PLACED THE PROB30 GROUPS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAFS, BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE AFTER 06Z
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...KRULL
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