886
FXUS63 KEAX 010744
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
244 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS. A LOW TORNADO RISK ALSO EXISTS.
- GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OUT INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TODAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DEEP MIXED EXPECTED UP TO
850MB WHERE A 35-45KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL RESIDE, A WINDY DAY CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 30 MPH UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THESE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE KC METRO AND FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE THE AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN WEAK CAPPED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%)FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE IT WILL IMPACT THE AREA. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN ROCKIES TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE
FROM BLACK HILLS AREA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS THE MAIN
CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SOME
MAKING THIS A OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING EVENT FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. IN ANY CASE, THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW FROM NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. TONIGHT, THIS COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER, AS THIS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA STORMS ALONG IT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
LINEAR IN NATURE. STORMS WILL HAVE 2500-3000J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE
AS WELL AS 35-40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST A MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS THE LINE APPROACHES, WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
BACKED WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SEVERE STORMS.
WHAT IS NOTICEABLE IS MOISTURE IS IMPROVED AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HI-RES SIM-REF OFF THE NAM
SUGGESTS STORMS UNDERGO A MODE SHIFT GOING FROM LINEAR TO A MORE
DISCRETE NATURE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. THIS FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO
EXIT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND DEEP MIXING HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH SW TO W WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH.
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AND
SEASONABLY COOL. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES
WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FORMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE OZARKS. SEVERAL
LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A
MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE AND MOVE OUT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE LAST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO FINALLY DRY OUT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
STRONG SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECTING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECTING MOST BASES TO BE VFR. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THEREFORE, HAVE
PLACED THE PROB30 GROUPS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAFS, BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE AFTER 06Z
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...KRULL
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