431
FXUS63 KEAX 210459
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING N-NE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
* FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. SEVERAL RIVER AND STREAMS CURRENTLY IN MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THAT WILL EXTEND INTO MONDAY.
* SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST A LINE FROM BUTLER, CARROLLTON, MACON TO
KIRKSVILLE.
* BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON MONDAY BEFORE MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN REDEVELOPS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. NOT ONLY SEEING THE RIVER RISES WITH SOME
LOCATIONS BLACKWATER, BIG NEAR BLAIRSTOWN, AND PETITE SALINE RIVERS
DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2-3+ INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PARTICULARLY. SEEING HE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG COUNTIES FROM BATES TO HENRY TO COOPER
COUNTIES IN MISSOURI, BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FURTHER
NORTH INTO OUR CWA THAN ANTICIPATED. AS OF 130PM, LATEST MRMS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ESTIMATING OVER 1 INCH IN SOUTHEAST HENRY
COUNTIES. NOT ONLY DO WE HAVE THE ACTIVE HYDROLOGIC SITUATION, BUT
LATEST RADAR ACTIVITIES AS OF 130PM APPEARS TO BE FIRING ALONG THE
THE WARM FRONT, IN WHICH THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE COORDINATED AND ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH FOR LINN COUNTY KS AND BATES, HENRY, PETTIS, COOPER, AND
HOWARD COUNTIES MO IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING. THIS MORNING WE
WERE ALREADY SEEING THE INCREASE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE 60+F DEGREE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE WERE INITIALLY CONCERNED THERE WOULD
NOT MUCH DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY, FURTHER
SOUTH FAR EASTERN KS THERE IS A DECENT LINE DEVELOPING AND MO
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MO AT THIS TIME. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WHILE THE
GREATEST THREAT MAY BE THE DAMAGING WINDS, STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. WE WILL ALSO POTENTIALLY SEE THE EXPANSION
OF TORNADO WATCH THAT WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO POTENTIALLY FROM
SALINE COUNTIES TO RANDOLPH TO AS FAR NORTH AT MACON AND LINN
COUNTIES MO.
CAMS (HRRR AND NAMNEST) HAVE SUGGESTED ORGANIZED LINEAR STORMS
THAT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT ON RADAR FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
CWA AS OF 130PM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CLUSTERS AHEAD OF THE LINE. 0-1 KM SRH ALONG THIS FEATURE IS
FORECASTED TO BE 150-250 M2/S2, SUGGESTING ORGANIZED ROTATION AS
WELL. AS THE LOW PINWHEELS NORTH, WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA TONIGHT AROUND 7PM.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AROUND 06-09Z IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL MO AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER, WILL STILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THE RIVER RISES THAT WILL
EXTEND BEYOND MONDAY WITH SEVERAL GAUGES FORECASTED IN THE MODERATE
STAGE PARTICULARLY FOR RIVERS PETITE SALINE, BLACKWATER, AND
BIG NEAR BLAIRSTOWN. LARAMIE AND SOUTH GRAND RIVERS CONTINUE TO
RISE FROM THE MINOR STAGE AND FORECASTED TO ENTER MODERATE STAGE
ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ INCHES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING MONDAY WILL EXACERBATE THE RIVERS.
WE ARE ONLY DRY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH, BUT PHASED SHORT WAVES FARTHER SOUTH MOVE EAST IN ZONAL FLOW
POTENTIALLY GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS BUILDING EAST
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A
BIT EARLY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MODEL RUN SHOWING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
RAIN HAS EXITED THE TERMINALS, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH AROUND 11Z/12Z MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
RETURNING TO VFR. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH GUSTS RELAXING BY AROUND 9Z MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
REMAINING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OF 1-4+ INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
LEAD TO BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING TODAY. THE GREATEST
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY,
WHEN 1-2+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS EAST
OF A LINE FROM CLINTON TO MOBERLY. RIVER FLOODING AND RISES HAVE
OCCURRED ALONG THE SOUTH GRAND, PETITE SALINE, LAMINE, AND BIG
CREEK, BLACKWATER. STARTING TO SEE FORECASTED RISES ON THE MARIAS
DES CYGNES JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE. WITH THE FLOODING REPORTS IN
BATES AND HENRY COUNTIES IN MO AN LINN COUNTY KS WE ALSO ISSUED AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH 10 PM.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MOZ032-033-038>040-
044>046-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ060.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...BMW
HYDROLOGY...CDB
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