563
FXUS63 KEAX 211706
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
* LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY
EVENING.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LINGERING LOW LYING STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS NOSES INTO THE REGION TODAY SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MONTANA BUILDING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY REMAIN TO THE NORTH, THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING POSSIBLY SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
ISOLATED - SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE NEAR 850 MB. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK,
SPEED SHEAR INCREASES ABOVE 600 MB LEADING TO 35-40 KNOTS OF 1-6
KM BULK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY CREATING ADDITIONAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM
THE GULF, PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED (~0.90-1") BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS SUNDAY. WIND SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO WEAKEN SOME INTO
WEDNESDAY, SO SEVERE THREAT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT
AT THIS TIME.
DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE DRY CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK TO
LAST WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES EJECTING FROM A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN US IN WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
FLOODING ALONG THE BLACKWATER, BIG, LAMINE, AND MARIAS DES
CYGNES WATERSHEDS IS EXPECTED TO CREST IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH WATER LEVELS FALLING THEREAFTER.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB
HYDROLOGY...BT
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