114
FXUS63 KEAX 220353
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1053 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK MAINLY EAST BUT IT WILL HELP TO PUSH A
WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IMPEDES
UPON IT. THE STRONGEST ASCENT FROM THIS SETUP WILL INITIALLY BE
ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUT AS THAT LOW-LEVEL JET
VEERS LATER IN THE NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH ONLY
MODEST, AT BEST, MUCAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR. GIVEN THIS, THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW WITH ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BROADLY SOUTHWESTERLY. IN THE LOWER-
LEVELS, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT AMPLE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. IN FACT, THERE'S A GREATER
THAN 67% CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 60 DEGREES AND MAY FALL SHORT OF OUR NORMAL HIGHS BY ONLY
A FEW DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR MOST OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, PEAKING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN THE 97.5 PERCENTILE. WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY, AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LOOK POSSIBLE. WPC HAS
INCLUDED THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TAFS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME/PEAK MIXING HOURS. SLOWLY SAGGING
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LLJ BEGINS TO INTRODUCE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN AVAILABLE
HI-RES GUIDANCE, HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 LINES AT ALL SITES FOR
THIS POTENTIAL, AFTER 00Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CURTIS
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