503
FXUS63 KEAX 220953
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
*A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTES MAINLY NORTH OF HWY-36. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. AS WE ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
H850, HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S WHICH KEEPS US A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS EVENING, A 25-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS AND MOVE EAST
INTO MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE EXISTS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGE FROM 30-40 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
500-1000 J/KG. THE MAIN HAZARDS LOOK TO BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. SPC HAS PLACED MAJORITY OF OUR AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK. A CAP IN PLACE OVER MISSOURI COULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
DISAGREE ON TIMING YIELDING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
THE NAM PUSHES THE TIMING FARTHER BACK TO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN THE BRUNT OF THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHICH SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTION.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK. DAILY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BULK
SHEAR VALUES AND CAPE VALUES STAY UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE THIS
TIMEFRAME THEREFORE, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY, A FEW AREAS NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS HAVE
BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A LINE FROM
PILOT GROVE TO SHERIDAN AND WEST HAS BEEN PLACED IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW, INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL YIELD THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. SPC
HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TAFS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME/PEAK MIXING HOURS. SLOWLY SAGGING
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LLJ BEGINS TO INTRODUCE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN AVAILABLE
HI-RES GUIDANCE, HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 LINES AT ALL SITES FOR
THIS POTENTIAL, AFTER 00Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...CURTIS
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