117
FXUS63 KEAX 230529
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
*A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
THIS COMING WEEK THE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL SPARK SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MORNING, A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH.
BROAD AND WEAK LIFT IN ITS VICINITY HAS LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULDN'T AMOUNT
TO MUCH. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE EVENING, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. PEAK HEATING WILL HELP INSTABILITY INCREASE TO AROUND
1000 J/KG THIS EVENING, AND MODERATE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS
WILL BE PRESENT. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT. WHILE NONE OF THESE PARAMETERS ARE IMPRESSIVE, THEY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN, HOWEVER ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DWINDLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY OF 1000+ J/KG LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS KANSAS,
ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR LOOKS POOR. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL THE THREAT
LOOKS LOW. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO ON WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MID 70S.
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, RAINFALL TOTALS TO BE
1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE UNLIKELY, SOME ISOLATED CONCERNS MAY BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THIS TIME AS FLOW REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTH, THANKS TO A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES AND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER
WITH THIS BEING 7 DAYS OUT, LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
IMPACTED AREA MAY SHIFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REGARDLESS, PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY AROUND THE KANSAS
AND MISSOURI STATELINE FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH EAST-WARD. A SECOND WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE 10Z TIMEFRAME AGAIN FOR STJ
AND THE KC METRO TERMINALS. THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THIS MAY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCHES TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS KANSAS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...KRULL
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