655
FXUS63 KEAX 231136
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS:
*WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
*NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
COULD LEAD TO MINIMAL FLOODING
- UNSETTLED PATTERN RESULTING IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SHORTWAVE-INDUCED SHOWERS CONTINUING EASTWARD, MAINLY ALONG I-70,
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING JUST IN TIME FOR WORK
COMMUTES. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY
EXPECTED (CAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING
FROM 15-25 KTS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND OF
STORMS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THOUGH THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
WITH SOME AREAS NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI GETTING CLOSER TO 80.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE THIS EVENING
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK (30-35 KT) LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHEAR. THE LATEST HRRR
RUN SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOP IN EASTERN KANSAS AND MOVE EASTERLY INTO
OUR AREA. THESE STORMS MAINLY LOOK TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF I-35. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-30 KTS.
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK. BETTER CAPPING OVER OUR AREA WILL MAKE
FOR A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER
EAST INTO MISSOURI. THE SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY 09Z.
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE MAIN H500 LOW THAT HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING THESE SHORTWAVES FINALLY MOVES THROUGH
THE FLOW RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NIGHTLY SHOWERS AND STORMS. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S HELPS PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS WITH WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, WPC HAS
PLACED THE WESTERN HALF OF MISSOURI IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. PWATS RANGING AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES, WHICH EXCEEDS THE 90%
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN. HOWEVER,
LREF 24 HR PRECIP SUGGESTS ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE (BEST CHANCE) FOR
AREAS NEAR MARYVILLE TO GET MORE THAN AN INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME CHANCES
(25-35%) FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY FOR THE CENTRAL MISSOURI. A
DEEPENING H500 LOW EJECTS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE H500 LOW PRODUCES A SURFACE LOW THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA YIELDING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE GFS SUGGESTS AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SHEAR, BUT WITH A
STOUT CAP IN PLACE CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED. STILL, THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS FORECAST IS. SPC HAS
PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER STORMS MOVE OUT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WENT WITH A PROB30 GROUP DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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